292
FXUS62 KKEY 301529
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1129 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A REVERSE CLOUD LINE IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY DEVELOPING
CLOUD LINE WILL TEND TO FAVOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES EXPECTED TODAY,
BECOMING MAINLY LIGHT BREEZES TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
LATEST KBYX RADAR IMAGERY IS ONLY DETECTING A FEW LIGHT ECHOES
DRIFTING TO THE NE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
AT THIS TIME, BUT OTHERWISE IT HAS BEEN A DRY START TO THE DAY ON
THIS SECOND AND FINAL DAY OF LOBSTER MINI SEASON. WHILE THE 12Z
KEY RAOB SAMPLED A PWAT OF 1.89 INCHES, WHICH LIES BETWEEN THE
DAILY MEAN AND 75TH PERCENTILE PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, THE
MOISTURE PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN IS STILL RATHER
DRY WITH LOW AND MID RH VALUES OF 70% AND 63%, RESPECTIVELY. THIS
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE KEYS STANDS IN STARK CONTRAST
TO THE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WHERE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE POOLING IS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF A WAVY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE
NORTH IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT TOO MUCH FURTHER SOUTH DESPITE
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDING
INTO FLORIDA. THUS, RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS CWA WILL BE THE LOWER SIDE. THAT SAID,
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WHAT MIGHT
BE THE EARLY STAGES OF A REVERSE CLOUD LINE LATER TODAY, WHICH
COULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO ORGANIZE A BIT CLOSER TO THE ISLAND
CHAIN TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY GIVEN THE WEAKER SW WIND FLOW
PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS. SHOULD THIS CLOUD LINE ORGANIZE
FURTHER, SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN'T BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE IS
NOT TOO ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME SO WILL KEEP
POPS CAPPED AROUND 10% FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL
REACH AROUND 90 THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND THE
ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WEAK NEBULOUS FLOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES. A COL REGION WILL SET UP FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES. AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE
NORTH ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL FRESHEN BY THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH SSW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS
BECOMING LIGHT/VRB BY TONIGHT. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHRA CAN'T BE
RULED OUT LATER TODAY, ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...RG
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....RG
DATA ACQUISITION.....RG
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