606
FXUS62 KKEY 311505
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1105 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR A CLOUD LINE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
- LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
GOES-19 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS STREAMING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING,
WHICH IS ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE NATURE
COAST REGION. THIS CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY THE DEEP MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
MEANWHILE, MOISTURE DEPTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS CONTINUES TO
REMAIN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN NORTH CENTRAL FL DESPITE THE RECENT
PWAT VALUE OF 1.92" THAT WAS SAMPLED FROM THE 12Z KEY SOUNDING
THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE PROFILE IS STILL NOT
CONCENTRATED MORE HEAVILY IN THE LOW LEVELS AND AS A RESULT, THIS
MAY BE A FACTOR THAT INHIBITS ORGANIZED OR PERSISTENT CLOUD LINE
FORMATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE COL FLOW REGIME LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY IN A SPLIT RIDGE PATTERN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE EASTERN GULF AND THE ATLANTIC, CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT OVER AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN IS STILL ANTICIPATED WITH A
NON-ZERO CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN OVERCOME THE DRIER POCKETS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. OTHER THAN MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF CLOUD LINE
ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
SUPPORT FANTASTIC MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING AROUND 90 AND HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM
100-105 IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS AND POTENTIALLY A BIT HIGHER
IN THE UPPER KEYS SO SAFE HEAT PRACTICES ARE ENCOURAGED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK
NEBULOUS FLOW, RESULTING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES. A COL REGION
WILL SET UP TODAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN
A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
FRESHEN BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT/VRB WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION, A CLOUD LINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TODAY BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY AVIATION CONCERNS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...RG
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....RG
DATA ACQUISITION.....RG
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