858
FXUS62 KKEY 311743
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
143 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR A CLOUD LINE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
- LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT/VRB WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION, A CLOUD LINE HAS FORMED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN BUT IT
IS LACKING ANY MEANINGFUL ORGANIZATION. AS A RESULT, ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY AVIATION CONCERNS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME, THOUGH
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY IF THE CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD LINE
LOWER ENOUGH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A WEAK NEBULOUS FLOW WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
AS A COL REGION CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST BREEZES
WILL FRESHEN BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE INCREASING BY
NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING NORTHERN FLORIDA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
GOES-19 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
STREAMING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING, WHICH
IS ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE NATURE COAST
REGION. THIS CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY THE DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
AHEAD OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
MEANWHILE, MOISTURE DEPTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS CONTINUES TO
REMAIN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN NORTH CENTRAL FL DESPITE THE RECENT
PWAT VALUE OF 1.92" THAT WAS SAMPLED FROM THE 12Z KEY SOUNDING
THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE PROFILE IS STILL NOT
CONCENTRATED MORE HEAVILY IN THE LOW LEVELS AND AS A RESULT, THIS
MAY BE A FACTOR THAT INHIBITS ORGANIZED OR PERSISTENT CLOUD LINE
FORMATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE COL FLOW REGIME LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY IN A SPLIT RIDGE PATTERN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE EASTERN GULF AND THE ATLANTIC, CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT OVER AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN IS STILL ANTICIPATED WITH A
NON-ZERO CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN OVERCOME THE DRIER POCKETS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. OTHER THAN MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF CLOUD LINE ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT
FANTASTIC MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING AROUND 90 AND HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100-105 IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS AND POTENTIALLY A BIT HIGHER IN THE
UPPER KEYS SO SAFE HEAT PRACTICES ARE ENCOURAGED.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
LAST NIGHT'S KKEY 00Z SOUNDING REVEALED A DRIER PROFILE EXPLAINING
THE LACK OF SHOWERS EXPERIENCED OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S. CLOUD COVERAGE SEEN ON NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IS
MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE LOWER KEYS WHILE THE UPPER KEYS HAVE SOME
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH. ALONG THE REEF, MARINE
LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. FOR
TODAY, WITH THESE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY WITH POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS PRODUCED FROM THE CLOUD
LINES, LIMITED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LAST FOR THE NEXT FEW PERIODS. AS A TROUGH
MOVES EASTERLY ON SUNDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FRESHEN AND BECOME
SOUTHEAST TO EAST ONCE AGAIN. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO REIGNITE THE
MOISTURE RESULTING IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.
STAY TUNED.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...RG
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....RG
DATA ACQUISITION.....RG
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