744
FXUS62 KKEY 010242
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1042 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1042 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, WE HAD A FEEBLE CLOUD LINE TRY AND GET
ITS ACT TOGETHER. IT ONLY MANAGED A BRIEF SHOWER JUST EAST OF BIG
PINE KEY THAT LASTED AROUND 15 TO 30 MINUTES BEFORE DISSIPATING.
SINCE THEN, THE RADAR HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUIET, AT LEAST THE KBYX
RADAR. SOME CONVECTION FIRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND
DRIFTED OFFSHORE OF KEY BISCAYNE BUT ALSO FELL APART VERY QUICKLY.
WHAT REMAINS NOW ARE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE STREAMING
IN OVERHEAD OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
WE REMAIN IN A COL AND AS SUCH WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE A SMALL SLIVER JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
END OF THE UPPER KEYS. HERE WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
AND THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT A THERMAL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLIER IN THE DAY, INDUCED WHAT I'M GOING TO
CALL A MESOSCALE COASTAL JET. THIS FEATURE WAS PRESENT LAST NIGHT
AND DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GOING FORWARD, WE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN A COL FOR ONE MORE
DAY. WE CAN EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER KEYS AND THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THAT AREA. THE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MARGINAL FOR A CLOUD LINE TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE SIGNAL CONTINUES FOR A MORE ACTIVE, WETTER PERIOD EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1042 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT
OFF THE UPPER KEYS WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
CONTINUE THIS HOUR. AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE NORTH
ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL FRESHEN BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, RAIN CHANCES WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING BY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING NORTHERN
FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THAT A
REVERSE CLOUD LINE MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
MENTIONS OF VCSH FOR ANY FUTURE AMENDMENTS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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