079
FXUS62 KKEY 011746
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
146 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
AND TONIGHT, THOUGH RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA AND OCCASIONAL TSRA SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST TAF ISSUANCE, BUT SMALL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IF THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EITHER OF THE ISLAND CHAIN TERMINALS. IN
ADDITION, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VRB THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5-10 KTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
LATEST KBYX RADAR IMAGERY DETECTS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE STRAITS, WHICH DEVELOPED AS A RESULT OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT HAS ORIGINATED FROM CONVECTION AROUND ANDROS ISLAND.
A WIDER GOES-19 SATELLITE PERSPECTIVE SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS AND SW ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS IT DEPARTS INTO THE ATLANTIC
AND ITS BASE PINCHES OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW. IN ADDITION, THERE IS
ALSO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CENTRAL CUBA DRIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST, WHICH ALSO AIDED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE.
HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BAHAMAS AND SW ATLANTIC IS STREAMING SOUTHWESTWARD AND AT
TIMES WILL FILTER ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY, WHICH MAY HAVE A ROLE IN LIMITING CLOUD LINE ORGANIZATION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO AT LEAST SOME EXTENT, BUT IT
DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CIRRUS ULTIMATELY FILTERS THROUGH. REGARDLESS,
A RISING CU FIELD WILL NEED TO OVERCOME LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND AN APPROACHING NARROW REGION OF SAHARAN DUST,
THOUGH DUST CONCENTRATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE DECREASING THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN NEEDING TO MONITOR THE
CLOUD LINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT, IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS YET AGAIN
AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLIES START TO
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE COL
REGION STARTS TO FADE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 540 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
ANOTHER NIGHT OF SHOWER-FREE KBYX RADAR. WHILE THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER NOT MUCH HAS
CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. WINDS ALONG THE REEF ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. TODAY WE CAN
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THOUGH OFF THE UPPER KEYS
THERE COULD BE ANOTHER SLIGHT FRESHENING OF BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOON. WATERSPOUT FORMATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN IF A CLOUD LINE
IS ABLE TO DEVELOP FROM THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
EARLY THIS WEEK THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND IN THE GULF WATERS THOUGH MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
ATTEMPT TO PUSH BACK IN THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AND SLIGHTLY FRESHENING AROUND MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
WEEK THOUGH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING HIGHER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
ADVERTISED. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK AND RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN WITH NEAR NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 540 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, WEAK NEBULOUS FLOW WITH
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE AS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES WESTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS PUTTING
THE COASTAL WATERS IN A COL REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL FRESHEN BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION,
RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE INCREASING BY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING NORTHERN FLORIDA.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...RG
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....RG
DATA ACQUISITION.....RG
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