395
FXUS62 KKEY 020315
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1115 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND FRESHEN
OVERNIGHT.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WE HAVE HAD ISOLATED POCKETS OF CONVECTION BREAK OUT THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE BATCH DEVELOPED FROM A SMALL WEAK
CLOUD LINE THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. ANOTHER
BATCH WAS LINGERING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM EARLIER IN
THE DAY. LASTLY, CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MAINALND AND
SLOWLY PUSHED SOUTH OUT ACROSS THE FLORIDA BAY, UPPER KEYS, AND
HAWK CHANNEL WATERS. THE STRONGER ACTIVITY WAS THE BATCH THAT CAME
OFF THE MAINLAND AND HAD QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING WITH IT. IN
ADDITION, THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS DROPPED UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL, MAINLY ACROSS THE MANGROVES AND SOUNDS.
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING WINDS TO ABRUPTLY
SWITCH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FRESHEN SOMEWHAT. AS THIS WIND
SHIFT OCCURS, THERE WILL BE A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING ALONG. MOST MODELS HAVE BEEN EAGER TO SPARK NEW
CONVECTION AS THIS PASSES THROUGH AROUND DAWN, THOUGH THE WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY WILL BE SMALL. IN ADDITION, SHORTLY AFTER THE
MOISTURE ARRIVES, WINDS GO MORE SOUTHERLY, WHICH IS NOT A
FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION TO GET DAYTIME CONVECTION. THE BEST
COVERAGE MAY LIE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DECIDEDLY BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND FRESHEN TO LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES. LIGHT TO
GENTLE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF GENTLE TO MODERATE. IN ADDITION, RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO BE INCREASING BY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
NORTHERN FLORIDA. AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE NEXT WEEK, MARINERS CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR
THIS ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT TO BE THE PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
WATCHING FOR NEW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS WINDS GO SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS DAWN ON SUNDAY. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE RATHER SMALL AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER LIFTING NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THEREFORE,
HAVE PUT A PROB30 IN FOR BOTH TERMINALS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 08-12Z
SUNDAY.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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