494
FXUS62 KKEY 020941
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
541 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND FRESHEN EARLY
THIS MORNING.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 541 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026 THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OBSERVED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE ALL
FIZZLED OUT LEAVING ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE.
BEYOND THAT, KBYX IS NOT DETECTING ANY ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 70S MAKING FOR ANOTHER MUGGY SUMMER MORNING. ALONG THE REEF,
MARINE LOCATIONS ARE RECORDING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KNOTS. FOR TODAY, SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BUT JUST SLIGHT
CHANCES ARE ADVERTISED FOR THE DAY. VARIABLE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER SUNRISE AND SLIGHTLY FRESHEN
TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THROUGH NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE. THIS WILL
SUPPORT GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES AND
BRING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO OUR AREA. WITH SUFFICIENT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WE CAN EXPECT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
PEAKING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD LINES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS WELL CAUSING SHOWERS
AND POTENTIAL WATERSPOUTS AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF HIGHER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION BREEZES WILL BE STEADY AT LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 541 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026 NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR
ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS.
FROM SYNOPSIS, AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN IN THE NORTH
ATLANTIC, BREEZES WILL FRESHEN WHILE BECOMING SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF GENTLE TO MODERATE. IN
ADDITION, RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE INCREASING BY NEXT WEEK AS
DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING NORTHERN FLORIDA. AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE NEXT WEEK, MARINERS CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS NEAR THIS ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A NARROW RIBBON OF
MOISTURE WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 08 TO 12Z. A PROB30 HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS.
THEREAFTER, A THIN LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN AND CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY
AT NEAR 10 KNOTS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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