995
FXUS62 KKEY 050229
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1029 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME GENTLE
TO MODERATE, AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- ELEVATED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THINGS LOOK A LOT DIFFERENT THIS EVENING COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY! THE LIGHT FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
ALLOWED FOR A CLOUDLINE TO DEVELOP ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER KEYS THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE
FLOW PUSHED ONE PARTICULAR CELL OVER FLORIDA BAY. JUST AFTER 1 PM,
A WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CELL FROM MEMBERS
OF THE PUBLIC IN TAVERNIER. THE THIN WATERSPOUT VISITED FLORIDA
BAY FOR APPROXIMATELY 15 MINUTES BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM IT SPAWNED FROM. NO OTHER REPORTS OF WATERSPOUTS WERE
RECEIVED ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFTERNOON CLOUDLINE DEVELOPMENT. A
HIGH CIRRUS FIELD DEVELOPED FROM THE CLOUDLINE, SHIELDING THE
LOWER KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS HELPED TO KEEP A LID ON ANY
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING, AND ENSURED A CALMER EVENING
SHIFT.
OUR KBYX RADAR IS CURRENTLY DETECTING ISOLATED POCKETS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WIDE SCATTERED ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED
WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SERVED AS LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING SHOWS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IF THERE IS SOME SOURCE
OF LIFT AVAILABLE. APPROXIMATELY 1800 J/KG OF ML CAPE WAS
CALCULATED, AND THE PWAT VALUE WAS 2.13". SATELLITE-DERIVED PWAT
SHOWS A SWATH OF VALUES NEAR, AND ABOVE, 2 INCHES, SO THE MOISTURE
IS THERE. THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE SHOWS POPS AROUND 40
PERCENT FOR OUR ISLAND COMMUNITIES TONIGHT. AT FACE VALUE, THIS
SEEMS A LITTLE LOW CONSIDERING THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OUT THERE,
BUT NEW OUTFLOWS FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION COULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER NEW ACTIVITY. HI-RES GUIDANCE FAVORS SOME NEW
DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY OVER THE MARINE AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. FOR THIS REASON, WE'LL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
AUTOMATED OBSERVATION SITES ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. WITH THE FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW,
IT FEELS A LITTLE STICKY OUTSIDE WITH NO SIGN OF IMPROVEMENT IN
THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE FORECAST UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED, NO
CHANGES ARE PROPOSED WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE AREA PRIMED FOR
SPOTTY AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND ANY ACTIVITY WILL
LEAD TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SHRA HAS DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE BY MID MORNING TOMORROW WITH SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE INDICATING A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. CONTINUED WITH
THE PROB30 FOR TSRA AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM 14Z-18Z FOLLOWED BY VCTS
FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES ON HOW
THE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, A TEMPO FOR TSRA
MAY BE INTRODUCED IN A FOLLOWING TAF ISSUANCE. STRONG INFLUENCE OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS
AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1894, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 68F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO TIED FOR THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN AUGUST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 92 82 92 / 40 60 50 50
MARATHON 82 90 82 90 / 40 60 50 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND X AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.X.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page