001
FXUS62 KKEY 051428
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLIES TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME GENTLE TO
MODERATE TONIGHT, THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BOUTS OF ELEVATED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A DRY ADIABATICALLY MIXED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 960 MB, WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAYER ABOVE. THE SOUNDING ALSO SAMPLED A
MODESTLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE, LIMITED INHIBITION, AND
PLENTY OF MIXED-LAYER CAPE. SURFACE PRESSURE AND WIND ANALYSIS
PLACES AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST EAST OF
BERMUDA, WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. MEANWHILE,
FURTHER ALOFT, 200 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD TO
THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC, WITH THIS VORTICITY FEATURE SLOWLY
LUMBERING WESTWARD. COMPOSITE WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY, SKIES ARE PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS, WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S.
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY, SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS DEPICT THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAINING IN AN ENVELOPE OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE. COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED VEERING AND
GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING, EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WITH DRIVE-BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
PRETTY MUCH AT ANY TIME. GIVEN THIS REGIME, MID-LEVEL CHANCE
(AROUND 50%) FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE KEYS STILL SEEMS
VALID, WITH NO CHANGES PROPOSED FOR THIS LATE MORNING FORECAST
UPDATE PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHILE EAST SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY GENTLE TODAY,
ANY STRONGER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AS
WELL AS SUDDENLY BUILDING AND CONFUSED SEAS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENTLE
EASTERLIES WILL BECOME MODERATE BY THIS EVENING, CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE WEEK, AS NEARBY ATLANTIC RIDGING STRENGTHENS AND
LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA. IN ADDITION, RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AS POCKETS OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC UPPER- LEVEL CURVATURE PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION AT TIMES. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
FAST-MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY MTH. THE ACTIVITY MAY WANE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY MAY PUSH THROUGH
THE TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THE CHAOTIC PATTERN TO THE ACTIVITY AND THE GENERAL
SCATTERED COVERAGE, HAVE ELECTED TO INCLUDE A GENERAL MENTION OF
VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF GUSTY WINDS AND
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO BE DEALT WITH WITH TEMPOS AS
NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 60 60 30 60
MARATHON 90 83 90 83 / 50 50 50 60
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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