082
FXUS62 KKEY 051720
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
120 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT, THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- BOUTS OF ELEVATED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
FAST-MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COVERAGE IN
THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE THEREAFTER THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT,
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY MAY PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE
CHAOTIC PATTERN TO THE ACTIVITY AND THE GENERAL SCATTERED
COVERAGE, HAVE ELECTED TO INCLUDE PERIODS OF VCSH IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME, WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES TO BE DEALT WITH WITH TEMPOS AS NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE CONGESTION OCCURRING TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE
FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE
THROUGH LOWER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARDS
NORTH FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST. AS THE RIDGE DOE SO, EASTERLY
BREEZES WILL TREND UPWARDS, BECOMING GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH
AS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW SLOWLY LUMBERS ITS WAY WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY
TROUGHY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH. IN ADDITION, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED. AS A RESULT, SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
SEASONABLE NEAR 90 HIGHS, AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DEW
POINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SLIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BECOMES MORE DOMINANT
THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO FALL
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION, THE LOWER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, ALLOWING EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES TO RELAX TO A GENTLE BREEZES. NO TREND IN
TEMPERATURES OR DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
AN ATLANTIC HIGH CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDS
A RIDGE WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO THE CAROLINA COAST, WHILE ITS WESTERN
FLANK SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS A RESULT,
EASTERLY BREEZES WILL TREND UPWARDS, BECOMING MODERATE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, AND HOLD THERE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. A
NUMBER OF SUBTLE LOWER LEVEL UNDULATIONS WITH CONTINUED HIGH
AVAILABLE WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 60 40 40 60
MARATHON 90 83 90 83 / 50 40 40 60
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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