376
FXUS62 KKEY 060221
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1021 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GENTLE TO MODESTLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- BOUTS OF ELEVATED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND, AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 939 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WELL, WE GUESS WE HAD TO PAY FOR OUR CALMER CONDITIONS DURING OUR
EVENING SHIFT YESTERDAY. WE JUST DIDN'T EXPECT TO HAVE TO PAY FOR
IT SO SOON. OUR KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN A BUSY TEAM PLAYER AS IT HAS
CONTINUED TO DETECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGHOUT THIS SHIFT. MRMS QPF ESTIMATES SUGGEST THE ISLAND
CHAIN DID NOT SEE MUCH OF THE RAIN FROM THE WIDELY SPREAD
ACTIVITY, AND RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WERE
SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE KEYS. A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF KEY WEST AND STOCK ISLAND MAY HAVE SEE UP TO A QUARTER
OF AN INCH, BUT RAINFALL TOTALS HIGHER THAN THIS WERE OVER OUR
MARINE ZONES. THE HEFTIER THUNDERSTORMS THAT BRUSHED THE LOWER
KEYS AROUND 8PM ALSO BROUGHT GUSTS OF NEAR 25 KNOTS, OR 29 MPH. WE
COULD ALSO HEAR THE THUNDER QUITE CLEARLY FROM INSIDE THE OFFICE!
THE ENVIRONMENT WAS UNSURPRISINGLY PRIMED FOR THIS. OUR 00Z KKEY
SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIRLY DEEP, MOIST PROFILE THROUGH MOST OF THE
VERTICAL COLUMN. THERE WAS A POOL OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS, BUT IT DIDN'T SEEM DRY ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE TOWERING
CONVECTION. THE CALCULATED PWAT WAS 2.15", AND THE ML CAPE WAS AN
IMPRESSIVE 3000 J/KG WITH ALMOST NO INHIBITION TO STOP THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM UTILIZING THIS ENERGY. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING, INDICATING THAT THE AVAILABLE ENERGY MAY HAVE
BEEN MOSTLY USED UP. HOWEVER, THE ISOLATED POCKETS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING OUR FLORIDA STRAITS FROM ANDROS STILL HAVE
SOME ENERGY TO PLAY WITH, SO WE AREN'T QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS WITH
RESPECT TO SOME NIGHTTIME ACTIVITY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY
BE SOME ROGUE GHOST BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE STRAITS JUST WAITING TO
HAVE A RUN IN WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (AROUND 40%) SEEMS APPROPRIATE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULDN'T HAVE MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO
REBOUND WITH THE MIX OF PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, SO THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SHOULD HOLD THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE NEEDED WITH THIS EVENING
UPDATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 939 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MAY WARRANT SHORT TERM FORECASTS (NOWCASTS) AND MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENTS DUE TO MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SUCH AS GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, HIGHER AND ROUGHER SEAS, AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. AS ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF, A GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FIELD WILL RESUME THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
INTO THURSDAY. ANY LULL IN OUR ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULDN'T LAST TOO
LONG, AND AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 939 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
OPPORTUNITIES FOR VCTS NEAR KEYW WILL PERSIST THROUGH ~04Z WITH A
GENERAL LULL IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED NEAR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TOMORROW,
BUT DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY IN HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE, I OPTED
TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCSH BY 12Z FOLLOWED BY A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 18-20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 92 83 92 / 40 40 60 40
MARATHON 83 90 83 90 / 40 40 60 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND X AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.X.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page