695
FXUS62 KKEY 060759
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
359 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- PERIODS OF ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND, AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
A ~1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDS A
RIDGE WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THIS HAS BROUGHT IN GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES.
LAST EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER AT 2.15 INCHES, SUBSTANTIAL CAPE, AND UNCAPPED. ADDING TO
THIS, THE STACKED ANTICYCLONE OF THE CAROLINA COAST HAS LEFT
NEBULOUS TO WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION. ALL THIS
TOGETHER HAS RESULTED IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCASIONALLY SWEEPING WESTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS AND ITS WATERS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, BROAD LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
LUMBER ITS WAY WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THROUGH OUR AREA. THERE IS NO REASON TO SHIFT FROM THE
ADVERTISED ABOVE NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES. EXPECT GENTLE
TO MODERATE EASTERLIES TO GENERALLY PEAK DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND LULL DURING THE DAY. NO TREND IN TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S.
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK, SOME
DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS. THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BECOME BETTER DOMINATED BY THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO OUR NORTH
AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPAND WESTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA. THESE FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER AND THUNDER
CHANCES TO SLIP BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK AND LULL AS IN PRIOR DAYS AND NO TREND IN
TEMPERATURES OR SURFACE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE BALLED UP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDS A
RIDGE WEST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED A RELATIVELY TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO SHIFT INTO OUR AREA AND CORRESPONDINGLY MODERATE
EASTERLY BREEZES. THESE MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL SURGE AND LULL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK, OFTEN
LULLING SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE DAY AND PEAKING IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WHILE CAUTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST,
THEY DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
A WET WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE KEYS AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
EPISODES OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS AND
GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE EASTERLIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 60 60 40 40
MARATHON 90 83 90 84 / 50 60 50 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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