308
FXUS62 KKEY 061721
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
121 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
- PERIODS OF ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND, AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE STARTED TO ENTER A LULL PERIOD
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR EYW AND MTH. TSRA WILL BE ABLE TO WAX
AND WANE OVER THE OUTER GULF WATERS AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE DRY
TORTUGAS, BUT POP UP THUNDERSTORMS ARE LESS LIKELY NEAR THE ISLAND
CHAIN. VCSH WILL BE KEPT IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHRA CAN EASILY REFORM AFTER SUNSET. TSRA
CHANCES OVERNIGHT WILL LINGER, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED TO
BECOME A BIT LESS FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR VIS AND CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, BROAD LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
LUMBER ITS WAY WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THROUGH OUR AREA. THERE IS NO REASON TO SHIFT FROM THE
ADVERTISED ABOVE NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES. EXPECT GENTLE TO
MODERATE EASTERLIES TO GENERALLY PEAK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND LULL DURING THE DAY. NO TREND IN TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK, SOME
DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS. THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BECOME BETTER DOMINATED BY THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO OUR NORTH
AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPAND WESTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA. THESE FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER AND THUNDER
CHANCES TO SLIP BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK AND LULL AS IN PRIOR DAYS AND NO TREND IN
TEMPERATURES OR SURFACE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
FROM SYNOPSIS, AN ATLANTIC RIDGE BALLED UP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST EXTENDS A RIDGE WEST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA
AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED A RELATIVELY TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SHIFT INTO OUR AREA AND CORRESPONDINGLY
MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES. THESE MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL SURGE
AND LULL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK,
OFTEN LULLING SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE DAY AND PEAKING IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE CAUTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST, THEY DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 60 60 40 40
MARATHON 90 83 90 84 / 50 60 50 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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