040
FXUS62 KKEY 070222
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1022 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- ABOVE-NORMAL SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND AS THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 919 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WERE SAMPLED ON THE LATEST KKEY RAOB
WHICH IS EVIDENT BY THE RECENT REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS NEARSHORE WATERS AND
ISLAND CHAIN. ALL IN ALL, ACTIVITY HASN'T BEEN AS ROBUST AS
EARLIER TODAY OR PREVIOUS NIGHTS. A FEW COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER
CHAIN MAY RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE NEARLY ONE INCH OF RAINFALL THAT FELL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER KEYS THIS MORNING, AND STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. COOLER OUTFLOW HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR 80 DEGREES AT KEYW AND KNQX.
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY PROVIDING
LIFT FOR CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES, AND WE WILL LIKELY
SEE AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY AGAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
IN BETWEEN RAINFALL, TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MAINTAINING CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN THE
FORECAST SEEMS LIKE A SOLID CALL GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
1000-500MB MOISTURE CONTENT AND SUPPORT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 919 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS WITH A GENERAL
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOWCASTS AND
POTENTIAL MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL BE UTILIZED FOR STRONGER
ACTIVITY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, ROUGHER SEAS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES. A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA
TOMORROW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY. AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WEST INTO
FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF DRIVING GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WHICH WILL TEND TO PEAK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS ORIENTATION FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 919 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 FOR TSRA FROM 02-04Z DUE TO ACTIVITY
REDEVELOPING OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS
FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS THEREAFTER. AMENDMENTS WILL BE USED IF
NEEDED. MOIST, SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW MORNING, SO
VCTS WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF BEGINNING AT 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 60 60 40 40
MARATHON 90 83 90 84 / 50 60 50 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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