396
FXUS62 KKEY 070802
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
402 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GENTLE TO MODERATE BROADLY EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL,
PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND LULLING DURING THE DAY.
- ABOVE-NORMAL SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND TOWARDS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THE PAST 24 HOURS PROVED TO BE QUITE WET ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS WAS
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED LOWER LEVEL FLOW DUE TO A RIDGE
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND GULF AND A BROAD TROUGH ADVANCING
STEADILY WESTWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. MEANWHILE, THE BROAD
TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH NEBULOUS FLOW ALOFT.
IN ADDITION, PRECIPITABLE WATER IS VERY HIGH AT 2.25 INCHES, ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY AND CAPE WAS AMPLE WITH NO
INHIBITION. A 24 HOUR ESTIMATED MRMS RAINFALL MAP INDICATED
VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN RECEIVED MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOWER KEYS RECEIVING THE MOST RAINFALL,
MOSTLY RANGING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES.
THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE KEYS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, BUT POSSIBLY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER EXPECTED COVERAGE. THE
STEERING CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER TODAY AS THE LOWER
LEVEL TROUGH ADVECTS WESTWARD THROUGH THE KEYS. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO 2 INCHES WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT DRYING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AND INHIBITION
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY, CAMS CONTINUES TO PROJECT
FURTHER ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SPANNING AT LEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
FOR THIS REASON, WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS, WHICH IS ABOVE
BOTH SEASONAL NORMS AND ALL STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN UP NEAR 90 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BROADLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES.
A SHIFT TO DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY BUILD IN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH SHOVES
WEST OF OUR AREA, AND DEEP LAYERED ATLANTIC RIDGING ESTABLISHES
GREATER CONTROL ACROSS OUR REGION. LOWER TO MID LEVEL DRYING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITH PERIODS OF INHIBITION APPEARING IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER, CAPE WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE AND QUITE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEEPER CONVECTION. ONE PERIOD TO HIGHLIGHT
WILL BE SUNDAY, WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER BROAD LOWER LEVEL
TROUGH, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA, WILL MIGRATE WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MARGINALLY HIGHER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. OTHERWISE, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALIGNED ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND GULF WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND MAINTAIN WINDS
RANGING FROM GENTLE TO MODERATE. EXPECT WIND TENDENCY TO BE
LULLING DURING THE DAY AND PEAKING OVERNIGHT. NO TREND IN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S, AND DEW POINTS STUCK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WINDS WILL RELAX TODAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE USUAL DAY
TIME LULL AND A LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE TROUGH WORKINGS IT WAY
WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. EXPECT MOSTLY GENTLE
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES TODAY SWINGING BACK TO EASTERLY
TONIGHT. A WET PATTERN CONTINUES AND SPELLS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. THEREAFTER, THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
AND KEEP MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES. EXPECT
SIZABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS, TENDING LULL DURING THE DAY
AND PEAKING OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL REGIME, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TREND TOWARDS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR A BIT
LONGER. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, DELIVERING SPELLS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE GENTLE EASTERLIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 84 92 84 / 50 40 30 30
MARATHON 90 84 90 84 / 40 50 20 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV/11
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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