254
FXUS62 KKEY 071423
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1023 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GENTLE TO MODERATE BROADLY EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL,
PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND LULLING DURING THE DAY.
- ABOVE-NORMAL SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND TOWARDS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST OPENED A BIT LESS ACTIVE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS WATERS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING. KBYX RADAR
RETURNS SHOW SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY FORMING
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS OPPOSED TO NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN.
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN LESS ENERGETIC WITH FEWER LIGHTNING
STRIKES. THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PRIMED FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORNING KKEY SOUNDING SAMPLED AN
ENVIRONMENTAL PWAT OVER 2 INCHES WITH LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION TO
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WINDS AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICAL EFFECTS APPEAR
TO BE THE LIMITS TO SHOWER FORMATION TODAY. UPPER ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE IS DECREASING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WHILE A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS TRANSITS OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN. OVERALL, EXPECTING
SHOWER COVERAGE TO INCREASE LATER TODAY ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES WEST
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND THE ENVIRONMENT HEATS UP. PLUS, IF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LINGER ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS, A SHORT LIVED
CLOUD LINE MAY BE ABLE TO FORM. THUS, OPTING TO KEEP INHERITED
SHOWER CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, WINDS WILL RELAX TODAY DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF THE USUAL DAY TIME LULL AND A LOWER LEVEL
PRESSURE TROUGH WORKINGS IT WAY WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS. EXPECT MOSTLY GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES TODAY
SWINGING BACK TO EASTERLY TONIGHT. A WET PATTERN CONTINUES AND
SPELLS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THEREAFTER, THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND KEEP MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY BREEZES. EXPECT SIZABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS,
TENDING LULL DURING THE DAY AND PEAKING OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL REGIME, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
TREND TOWARDS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
A HIGHER CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEAR SURFACE WINDS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS ARE ON TRACK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SHIFT
FROM NORTHEASTERLIES TO SOUTHEASTERLIES.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE KEYS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, BUT POSSIBLY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER EXPECTED COVERAGE. THE
STEERING CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER TODAY AS THE LOWER
LEVEL TROUGH ADVECTS WESTWARD THROUGH THE KEYS. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO 2 INCHES WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT DRYING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AND INHIBITION
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY, CAMS CONTINUES TO PROJECT
FURTHER ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SPANNING AT LEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
FOR THIS REASON, WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS, WHICH IS ABOVE
BOTH SEASONAL NORMS AND ALL STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN UP NEAR 90 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BROADLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES.
A SHIFT TO DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY BUILD IN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH SHOVES
WEST OF OUR AREA, AND DEEP LAYERED ATLANTIC RIDGING ESTABLISHES
GREATER CONTROL ACROSS OUR REGION. LOWER TO MID LEVEL DRYING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITH PERIODS OF INHIBITION APPEARING IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER, CAPE WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE AND QUITE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEEPER CONVECTION. ONE PERIOD TO HIGHLIGHT
WILL BE SUNDAY, WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER BROAD LOWER LEVEL
TROUGH, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA, WILL MIGRATE WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MARGINALLY HIGHER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. OTHERWISE, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALIGNED ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND GULF WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND MAINTAIN WINDS
RANGING FROM GENTLE TO MODERATE. EXPECT WIND TENDENCY TO BE
LULLING DURING THE DAY AND PEAKING OVERNIGHT. NO TREND IN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S, AND DEW POINTS STUCK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 84 / 50 40 30 30
MARATHON 90 83 90 84 / 40 50 20 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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