867
FXUS62 KKEY 080137
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
937 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GENTLE TO MODERATE BROADLY EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL,
PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND LULLING DURING THE DAY.
- ABOVE-NORMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND TOWARDS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING INVERTED TROUGH HAS RESULTED
IN NOTABLY LESS CONVECTION THIS EVENING COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. IN
FACT, OTHER THAN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM STREAMING
OFF THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOWER ISLAND CHAIN, THERE HAS BEEN
VIRTUALLY NO DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS WITH MINIMAL CU DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE HIGH-LEVELS
OF MOISTURE AND LARGE INSTABILITY SAMPLED BY THE 00Z KKEY RAOB.
POPS FOR TONIGHT WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THIS UPDATE. WE'RE
KEEPING AN EYE ON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORM OVER CUBA WHICH IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD
AND MAY SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE DISTANT
STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW, BUT EXPECT CHANCES TO GENERALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF MID- LEVEL DRY AIR, CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
THE BAHAMAS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE KEYS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MORE TYPICAL WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S, WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TOMORROW AMID MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
EXPANDING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
PERSISTENT GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST,
PEAKING AT NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT LULL DURING THE DAYTIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
AS OF THIS WRITING, A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR A
LONE THUNDERSTORM JUST NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST. CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN OTHERWISE QUITE PLEASANT THIS EVENING.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
FLORIDA MAINLAND AND CUBA MAY HELP TO INITIATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT, BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO BE
HINDERED BY SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING INVERTED TROUGH IN
ADDITION TO DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE DOMINANT
FEATURE WILL BE THE EXPANDING BERMUDA HIGH WHICH WILL INFLUENCE
PERSISTENT, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL PEAK AT NIGHT WITH A SUBTLE LULL DURING THE DAYTIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINALS. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING LOW-LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH HAS REALLY SUBDUED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW
FROM STORMS OVER CUBA MAY PROPAGATE TOWARDS KEYW OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATING VCTS ~11-14Z.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS OF 8-10
KTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 84 / 50 40 30 30
MARATHON 90 83 90 84 / 40 50 20 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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