483
FXUS62 KKEY 090206
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1006 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GENTLE TO MODERATE BROADLY EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL,
PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND LULLING DURING THE DAY.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
PLEASANT CONDITIONS HAVE UNFOLDED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 80S ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO OUR NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA MAINLAND, WE'VE HAD LITTLE TO
NO ACTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OWING TO A SHARP DECREASE
IN TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE. PWATS ON THIS EVENING'S 00Z KKEY RAOB
MEASURED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE AT 1.46". THAT'S
QUITE THE DROP FROM THE 2" PWAT MEASURED ON THIS MORNING'S 12Z
SOUNDING. MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD ZONE OF DRY
AIR PROLIFERATING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS, GRADUALLY HEADED OUR WAY DUE
TO DEEP, EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A DEEP-
LAYER ATLANTIC RIDGE EXPANDING WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE
GULF. I DID DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT,
BUT WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF AS LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST A SUBTLE BOOST
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING INVERTED
TROUGH MAY LEND ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT GENTLE
TO MODERATE BREEZES PREDOMINATELY FROM THE EAST, PEAKING AT NIGHT
WITH A LULL DURING THE DAY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL FRESH BREEZES EARLY IN THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND PERIODIC
CAUTIONS MAY BE NEEDED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH DRY
AIR ALOFT ACTS TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. A SLIGHT BOOST IN MOISTURE
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL FLOW AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AT ~8-10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 92 84 92 / 20 30 20 20
MARATHON 84 90 84 90 / 20 40 40 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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