607
FXUS62 KKEY 090759
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
359 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GENTLE TO MODERATE BROADLY EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL,
PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND LULLING DURING THE DAY.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
THE WESTERN PHALANX OF A DEEP LAYERED ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHES
WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND GULF. AS A RESULT, WINDS HAVE
BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLIES. DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LAST EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATING A PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.48 INCHES, WHICH IS BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THE
DAY. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED AND CAPE IS
AMPLE. THIS ALONG WITH THE MODERATE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW HAS
BEEN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SEASONABLY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING THROUGH THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS MEANDERING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK THE
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS FLORIDA AS IT SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BELOW
NORMAL MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL INHIBITION. THIS ALONG WITH THE
BACKGROUND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES SLIM TO NONE.
EASTERLY BREEZES WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN GENTLE AND MODERATE,
PERFORMING THE USUAL LULLING DURING THE DAY AND PEAKING OVERNIGHT.
A SLIGHT DECREASING TREND IN WINDS SPEEDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE NUDGES SOUTHWARD. NO TREND IN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AND HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR 90 AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
ALL THAT SAID, IN THE SHORT TERM, A LOWER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL DRIVE WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD CLIMB CLOSER TO NORMAL, IN THE 1.8
INCH RANGE. ALL TOGETHER, THIS JUSTIFIES HOLDING LOW CHANCE POPS
AND SLIGHT THUNDER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1247 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRUNG ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO GENTLE TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY, AND
ACCELERATE TO MODERATE TO FRESH AT NIGHT. A CAUTION IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF KEYS WATERS TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER WINDS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY DOWNWARDS AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 30 30 20 10
MARATHON 90 84 90 84 / 30 30 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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