404
FXUS62 KKEY 091554
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1154 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- GENTLE TO MODERATE BROADLY EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL,
PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND LULLING DURING THE DAY.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES PEAK TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL PREVAIL STARTING
TOMORROW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
OUR KBYX RADAR IS BUSY DETECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS BY THE SPC SHOWS A MID LAYER INVERTED TROUGH
BRUSHING ACROSS THE AREA, PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL
GROWTH FOR THE ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM
THIS MORNING CALCULATED A PWAT VALUE OF 2.21", WHICH IS BETWEEN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF 2.15" AND THE DAILY MAX OF 2.43". IT'S
WORTH NOTING THAT THE BALLOON AND SONDE TRAVELED NORTHWEST OF KEY
WEST, AND CIMSS PWAT HIGHLIGHTS THIS AREA AS HAVING THE MOST
MOISTURE WITH SIMILAR PWAT VALUES. HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING IN MOSTLY DEPICTS VALUES JUST A BIT UNDER TWO
INCHES; NEARLY 1.75" TO 1.95". EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN, THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS LIKE IT IS MAKING USE OF
THE NEARLY 2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE. THE INHERITED FORECAST ADVERTISES
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AROUND 30% TO 40% FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS.
NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS HAD A NOTEWORTHY AMOUNT OF WIND WITH IT
AS WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A FEW MARINE PLATFORMS REPORT WIND GUSTS NEAR
20 MPH. THIS DOESN'T MEAN WE COULDN'T SEE ANY ROBUST SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT YOUR CHANCES OF SEEING A QUICK
DRIZZLE BEFORE THE SUN RETURNS ARE MUCH BETTER THAN A WETTING
DOWNPOUR MAKING A MESS OF THINGS.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 80S, AND OUR MODESTLY
STICKY DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, REFLECTING THE MOIST
AIR MASS. THE SILVER LINING, IF WE COULD CALL IT THAT, IS THAT
LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES BEING REPORTED ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN
WILL PREVENT THAT STAGNANT FEELING THAT CAN EXACERBATE THE HEAT.
NO CHANGES ARE PROPOSED WITH THIS MORNING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
THROUGH THIS WEEK, A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
FLORIDA AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
INHIBITION. THIS ALONG WITH THE BACKGROUND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES SLIM TO NONE. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL OSCILLATE
BETWEEN GENTLE AND MODERATE, PERFORMING THE USUAL LULLING DURING
THE DAY AND PEAKING OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT DECREASING TREND IN WINDS
SPEEDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
NUDGES SOUTHWARD. NO TREND IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AND HIGHS
WILL REMAIN NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DEW POINTS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS, BUT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR MARINE ZONES LATER
TONIGHT. A MIX OF MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA, LEADING TO LOCALIZED INSTANCED
OF STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. OTHERWISE, MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN OVER THIS
WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, MVFR
CIGS MAY BE OBSERVED AT EITHER TERMINAL AT VIRTUALLY ANY POINT
TODAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSE THE
AREA. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED, LEADING TO THE
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO TIMING. OPTING TO MAINTAIN A
BROADBRUSHED VCSH IN THE TAF PACKAGE, BUT WILL AMEND IF
SIGNIFICANT, LONG STANDING CATEGORICAL CHANGES BECOME LIKELY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
OF NOTE
ON THIS DAY IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY, IN 1950, FROM THE KEY WEST
CITIZEN, "THOUSANDS OF FISH WERE FOUND IN THE STREETS OF KEY WEST
AFTER A HEAVY RAIN. MOST OF THE FISH WERE FOUND ALONG CAROLINE
STREET BETWEEN WILLIAM AND GRINNELL. ONE THEORY WAS THAT A LARGE
WATERSPOUT HAD CARRIED THE FISH ASHORE. THIS THEORY WAS SUPPORTED
BY THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE FISH WERE MULLET, WHICH SWIM ON THE
SURFACE AND COULD BE PICKED UP BY A WATERSPOUT. CAROLINE STREET
REGULARS INSISTED IT HAD RAINED FISH, AND ONE MAN SAID HE SAW A
FULL-GROWN SPONGE FALL FROM THE SKY."
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 30 40 20 10
MARATHON 90 84 90 84 / 30 30 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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