506
FXUS62 KKEY 100801
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
401 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GENTLE TO MODERATE BROADLY E-SE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL, PEAKING
OVERNIGHT AND LULLING DURING THE DAY, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES
STARTING TOMORROW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS, ALONG WITH
THE USUAL REGIME RELATED NIGHT TIME SURGE, HAS RESULTED IN
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LAST
EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER QUITE HIGH AT 2.23
INCHES. HOWEVER, THIS IS LIKELY NO LONGER REPRESENTATIVE AS THIS
MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH THAT DROVE WESTWARD
THROUGH OUR AREA YESTERDAY. DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS TROUGH HAS
LIKELY INFILTRATED OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN LIMITED AND LARGELY RELEGATED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR
WATERS, WITH THE ISLAND CHAIN REMAINING DRY THIS EVENING.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY MID WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY, EASTERLY BREEZES
WILL OSCILLATE STEADILY DOWNWARDS, STILL PEAKING AT NIGHT AND
LULLING DURING THE DAY. NO CHANGE IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS EXPECTED.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE LOWER LEVELS WILL HELP TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
SLIM TO NONE.
LATE WEEK, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN MUCH FURTHER
AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
MEANWHILE, ALL LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES A BROAD LOWER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL RIDE WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA, BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO CLIMB
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL WOBBLE A
BIT SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT, GENTLE TO
MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL SLACKEN TO A LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES ON KEYS
WATERS. LATE IN THE WEEK, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AS A BROAD LOWER LEVEL TROUGH RIDES WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. IN
RESPONSE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK TO GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLIES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GENTLE EASTERLIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 90 84 90 84 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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