135
FXUS62 KKEY 101503
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1103 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST, IF NOT
THE REST, OF THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZES AND BELOW NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
A HANDFUL OF VERY LIGHT, SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE STILL TRACKING FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, BUT THE
OVERALL SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR ANY NECESSARILY EXCITING WEATHER.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST
OF THE SUNSHINE STATE WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE USUALLY POINTS TO CALM WEATHER
CONDITIONS, BUT THE STEERING FLOW THIS MORNING IS AROUND 17 KNOTS,
OR NEARLY 20 MPH. FLOW IS LIKELY ELEVATED DUE TO A TIGHTENED
GRADIENT AS THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AS THE 12Z
SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING CALCULATED A PWAT VALUE OF 1.59". LAYER
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS MOISTURE IS MOSTLY SITTING BETWEEN THE
SURFACE AND 700 MB, SO ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULDN'T HAVE MUCH
HEIGHT TO THEM. SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT VALUES SHOW A POCKET OF
EVER DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN THROUGHOUT TODAY, SO RAIN CHANCES
WILL APPROACH NIL.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE ALREADY IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH OUR HOT SPOT CURRENTLY IN BIG PINE WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE IS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 90S. DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S
ARE KEEPING THE HEAT INDEX "ONLY" IN THE UPPER 90S AT THIS TIME.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE, THE AFTERNOON WILL WARM UP A FEW
MORE DEGREES, BUT THE SILVER LINING IS THIS BREEZE IN PLACE. THE
AIR SHOULDN'T FEEL TOO STAGNANT, BUT THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT
SHOULD STILL BE AWARE OF THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES HITTING
THE MID 100S. NO CHANGES ARE PROPOSED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY MID WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY, EASTERLY BREEZES
WILL OSCILLATE STEADILY DOWNWARDS, STILL PEAKING AT NIGHT AND
LULLING DURING THE DAY. NO CHANGE IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS EXPECTED.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE LOWER LEVELS WILL HELP TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
SLIM TO NONE.
LATE WEEK, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN MUCH FURTHER
AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
MEANWHILE, ALL LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES A BROAD LOWER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL RIDE WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA, BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO CLIMB
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DRIER AIR WILL
GREATLY LIMIT HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AS WELL AS HOW LONG
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST. ANY MARINE IMPACTS WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED, AND SHORT LIVED. EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
SLACKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS HIGHER PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE REST OF THIS WEEK SHOULD
SEE GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WITH ONLY
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL REMAIN FEW TO SCT NEAR FL025,
BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS MAY BE OBSERVED WITH THE FAIR WEATHER
CLOUD FIELD. ANY MVFR OBS WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AND NOT NECESSARILY
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE WEATHER IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIR FIELD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 90 84 90 84 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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