242
FXUS62 KKEY 101818
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
218 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST, IF NOT
THE REST, OF THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZES AND BELOW NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WITH FEW TO
SCT SKIES NEAR FL030. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS MAY BE REPORTED AS THE
FAIR WEATHER CLOUD FIELD PASSES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BUT ANY
MVFR CONDITIONS REPORTED WILL BE SHORT LIVED. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KNOTS, BUT GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY MID WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY, EASTERLY BREEZES
WILL OSCILLATE STEADILY DOWNWARDS, STILL PEAKING AT NIGHT AND
LULLING DURING THE DAY. NO CHANGE IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS EXPECTED.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE LOWER LEVELS WILL HELP TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
SLIM TO NONE.
LATE WEEK, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN MUCH FURTHER
AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
MEANWHILE, ALL LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES A BROAD LOWER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL RIDE WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA, BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO CLIMB
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DRIER AIR WILL
GREATLY LIMIT HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AS WELL AS HOW LONG
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST. ANY MARINE IMPACTS WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED, AND SHORT LIVED. EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
SLACKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS HIGHER PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE REST OF THIS WEEK SHOULD
SEE GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 92 83 92 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 84 90 84 90 / 10 10 10 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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