174
FXUS62 KKEY 110230
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1030 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLACKENING TO LIGHT TO
GENTLE BREEZES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
- A SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, PERHAPS SLIGHT CHANCES AT BEST.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH NOT MUCH RELIEF OVERNIGHT. REMEMBER TO
STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE BREAKS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO
FLORIDA AND THE GULF. MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE RECORDING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS AS A RESULT. GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS
SHOWS A SLUG OF 1.3 TO 1.5 INCH PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE KEYS.
KBYX RADAR HAS NOT DETECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONE CAVEAT WAS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
STRAITS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE KEYS COVERAGE AREA WHERE A FEW PESKY
SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 8-10 PM. THESE HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE KEYS WITH LOW LEVEL CUMULUS BEING THE
NAME OF THE GAME. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE
MID 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNSTABLE PROFILE ESPECIALLY
BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND 825 MB. ABOVE THIS LAYER, THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER IS IN FULL EFFECT WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE HIGH WITH CAPE
VALUES MEASURING BETWEEN 3200-3600 J/KG. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED
WAS 1.54 INCHES WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THE
DATE. THE WIND PROFILE REMAINS UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE EAST
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 3000 FT. BASED ON THE ABOVE,
ANY SHOWER THAT DO TRY AND DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY ENTRAIN
DRY AIR AS THEY TRY TO GROW VERTICALLY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY BEING SO HIGH, THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OF THESE TO GROW
TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING REMAINS PLAUSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MARINE AREA. THEREFORE, NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) REMAINING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, RIDGING
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL STEADILY SHIFT SOUTHWARDS INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARDS TO A LIGHT TO
GENTLE BREEZE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FRESHEN
LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
LIFTS BACK INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND A BROAD LOWER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT TO NEAR NIL AS A SAHARAN AIR
LAYER (SAL) REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE KEYS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN MAINLY EASTERLY, OCCASIONALLY BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 90 84 90 84 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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