741
FXUS62 KKEY 110802
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
402 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLIES THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SLACKEN TO A LIGHT BREEZE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
- A SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, KEEPING SLIM TO NO SHOWER AND THUNDER
CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH NOT MUCH RELIEF OVERNIGHT. REMEMBER TO
STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE BREAKS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGING STRETCHES EAST/WEST ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS IS RESULTING IN GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLIES ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT THE NORTHWESTERN REACHES OF A BROAD SAHARAN AIR
LAYER HAS SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS PAST EVENINGS SOUNDING
INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CAPE. HOWEVER, PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 1.53
INCHES, VERY NEAR THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY. IN ADDITION,
THERE WAS A ROBUST NOSE OF INHIBITION BASED AROUND 850 MB. AS A
RESULT, THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW SHOWERS PRESENT ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY DOWNWARDS
THROUGH THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
THROUGH MID WEEK A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN RESPONSE, THE DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO TREND DOWNWARDS THROUGH
THIS STRETCH, POTENTIALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MID
WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES SPLIT DAILY BY MAINLAND DAY
TIME HEATING. NO SIGNIFICANT TREND IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MID LATITUDE TROUGH A BIT MORE, FURTHER
WEAKENING THE NEARBY RIDGING. MEANWHILE, ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
BROAD LOWER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE
EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. AS THE TROUGH DRAWS
NEAR ON FRIDAY, WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN MODERATELY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST, THEN SHIFT EAST TO SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. IN
ADDITION, THIS TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED CONFLUENCE, LESS
INHIBITION, AND MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AT NEAR 2 INCHES.
FOR THIS REASON A PERIOD OR TWO OF AT LOW TO MID CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT, GENTLE TO
MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL RELAX TO A LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE.
SOME VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AFTER MID WEEK AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND IS FRACTURED DAILY BY DAYTIME HEATING. LATE IN
THE WEEK, BREEZES WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS
THE RIDGE LIFTS BACK INTO CENTRAL AND A BROAD LOWER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WEEKEND WINDS WILL
SHIFT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY, BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE KEYS AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 85 92 85 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 91 84 92 84 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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