233
FXUS62 KKEY 111810
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
210 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS, DUE
TO HIGHER WATER LEVELS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
- A SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, KEEPING SLIM TO NO SHOWER AND THUNDER
CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE RELIEF OVERNIGHT. REMEMBER TO STAY
HYDRATED AND TAKE BREAKS IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WITH
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL BE FEW TO OCCASIONALLY SCT NEAR FL025. SAHARAN
DUST IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY LEAD TO OCCASIONAL
VIS OBSERVATIONS OF 8 TO 9 SM, BUT THIS WILL NOT CAUSE ANY IMPACTS
ONSITE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
THROUGH MID WEEK A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN RESPONSE, THE DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO TREND DOWNWARDS THROUGH
THIS STRETCH, POTENTIALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MID
WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES SPLIT DAILY BY MAINLAND DAY
TIME HEATING. NO SIGNIFICANT TREND IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MID LATITUDE TROUGH A BIT MORE, FURTHER
WEAKENING THE NEARBY RIDGING. MEANWHILE, ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
BROAD LOWER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE
EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. AS THE TROUGH DRAWS
NEAR ON FRIDAY, WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN MODERATELY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST, THEN SHIFT EAST TO SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. IN
ADDITION, THIS TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED CONFLUENCE, LESS
INHIBITION, AND MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AT NEAR 2 INCHES.
FOR THIS REASON A PERIOD OR TWO OF AT LOW TO MID CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHILE THERE ARE NO MARINE HAZARD PRODUCTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS, A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE LOWER KEYS DUE TO HIGHER WATER LEVELS AROUND TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. ANYONE ON THE WATER SHOULD BE AWARE OF REDUCED CLEARANCE
UNDERNEATH FIXED BRIDGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO
OCCASIONALLY SOUTHEAST BREEZES, AND A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL HELP
TO KEEP RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES VERY LOW. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY
FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER THE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 85 92 85 91 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 84 92 84 92 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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