557
FXUS62 KKEY 260308
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1108 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK, PEAKING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK, THOUGH OCCASIONAL MODERATE PERIODS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THIS EVENING'S 25/00Z KEY RAOB REVEALS A NOTABLE MOISTENING TREND
COMPARED TO THE 12Z SOUNDING JUST 12 HOURS EARLIER AS PWATS WERE
SAMPLED AT 1.83 INCHES COMPARED TO 1.48 INCHES EARLIER TODAY.
DESPITE THIS MOISTENING TREND AND VIRTUALLY NO INHIBITION TO SPEAK
OF, OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING WAS RATHER
LIMITED AS THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP WAS
IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS, BUT OTHERWISE IT HAS
BEEN LARGELY RAIN-FREE SO FAR. A REGIONAL SATELLITE PERSPECTIVE
STILL SHOWS AN MCV NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND ANDROS ISLAND WITH A
FLARE UP OF CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE, BUT
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE TIME BEING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING SOUTHWARD FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER THE MAINLAND. THUS, EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY INCREASE
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EVENING UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF THE KEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PROMOTE
PEAKING AND LULLING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES. BREEZES WILL PEAK
IN THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING AND LULL IN THE AFTERNOONS.
THE STRONGEST SURGE OF BREEZES IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHERE MOSTLY MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION, THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 931 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA START TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BUT THIS SHOULDN'T RESULT IN LONG DURATION
IMPACTS. EITHER WAY, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE ESE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...RG
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....RG
DATA ACQUISITION.....RG
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