287
FXUS62 KKEY 260844
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
444 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- MAINLY GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES TODAY WILL BRIEFLY SURGE
TONIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STAGNANT SPLIT RIDGE PATTERN
IN PLACE. ONE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
WHILE THE SECOND RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE
WEST OF THE AZORES. IN BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES, A BROAD MEAN LAYER
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
AT THE SURFACE, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS. MARINE
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE RECORDING
SOUTHEAST BREEZES NEAR 10 KNOTS AS A RESULT. GOES 19 TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS ESTIMATED PWATS OF 1.8 TO
2 INCHES ACROSS THE KEYS. KBYX RADAR HAS REMAINED ACTIVE FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SE GULF WATERS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
FORECAST
THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS CAN BE SUMMED UP WITH THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE KEYS
ALONG WITH BOUTS OF MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OVERALL, EXPECT ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IN ADDITION, EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PEAK IN THE EVENINGS
AND OVERNIGHT AND LULL IN THE AFTERNOONS.
THE INTERESTING TIME FRAME CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE IN
THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE PRESSES THROUGH THE KEYS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW. THEREFORE, LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
THE BIGGER SHOW AS WE WILL HAVE BASICALLY ALL THE INGREDIENTS
LINED UP FOR ROBUST CONVECTION. WE WILL HAVE THE INSTABILITY,
MOISTURE, AND LIFT ALL LINING UP AT THE SAME TIME. MORE SIMPLY
PUT, EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WHICH IS ENTIRELY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. AVERAGE
RAIN CHANCES ALSO PEAK FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER AT 35%, WHICH
IS LESS THAN A WEEK AWAY. IT IS ALSO HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT
TIMING FOR CONVECTION AS BASICALLY JUST EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN ADDITION, EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. OF COURSE, TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S
WHERE ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE OVER.
TROPICS: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) CONTINUES TO MONITOR
2 AREAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS
CURRENTLY POSING A THREAT TO THE KEYS. THE AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS A 70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS
AND A 70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF THE KEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PROMOTE
PEAKING AND LULLING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES. BREEZES WILL PEAK
IN THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING AND LULL IN THE AFTERNOONS.
THE STRONGEST SURGE OF BREEZES IS ANTICIPATED TO BE TONIGHT WHERE
MOSTLY MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION, THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE TIME FOR
ACTIVITY TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 26/09Z AND
26/16Z TODAY. DUE TO DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
FOR CONVECTION, PROB30 WAS KEPT IN THE TAFS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2005, HURRICANE KATRINA LASHED THE KEYS PRODUCING
9.66" OF RAIN AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON THE 26TH. THIS
IS THE WETTEST DAY ON RECORD FOR AUGUST AND THE FOURTH-WETTEST
DAY EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.
OF NOTE
IN 2005, AT JOHN PENNEKAMP STATE PARK, A DAILY RAINFALL OF 4.15"
WAS RECORDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 83 90 83 / 40 40 50 40
MARATHON 90 83 90 83 / 50 40 50 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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