061
FXUS62 KKEY 261455
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1055 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, HIGHEST
IN THE UPPER KEYS.
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- MAINLY GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES TODAY WILL BRIEFLY SURGE
TONIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN THIS MORNING AS WE SAW
YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LINGERED INTO THIS MORNING AND
SINCE SUNRISE, HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DWINDLING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
IS NOW CONFINED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS BUT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS MOVING IN FROM THE BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE, WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE SOUTHEAST WINDS THANKS TO A BROAD ROBUST RIDGE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC.
GIVEN THE DECREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS,
WHILE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PIVOTS IN ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS, HAVE
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED RAIN
CHANCES ALL ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS, HOWEVER, HAVE MAINTAINED THE
"HIGHEST" CHANCES ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE,
THAT'S THE ONLY CHANGE WE'VE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHOULD OVER RUN THE REMAINING AREAS THIS
EVENING AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, EXPECT GENERALLY GENTLE TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FROM
SYNOPSIS: THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE KEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL PROMOTE PEAKING AND LULLING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES.
BREEZES WILL PEAK IN THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING AND LULL IN
THE AFTERNOONS. THE STRONGEST SURGE OF BREEZES IS ANTICIPATED TO
BE TONIGHT WHERE MOSTLY MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION, THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID, CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS LOW WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT THE MTH TERMINAL. GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE, WILL TRANSITION THE VCTS TO VCSH FOR THE MTH TERMINAL
AND TAKE OUT OF EYW FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STAGNANT SPLIT RIDGE PATTERN
IN PLACE. ONE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
WHILE THE SECOND RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE
WEST OF THE AZORES. IN BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES, A BROAD MEAN LAYER
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
AT THE SURFACE, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS. MARINE
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE RECORDING
SOUTHEAST BREEZES NEAR 10 KNOTS AS A RESULT. GOES 19 TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS ESTIMATED PWATS OF 1.8 TO
2 INCHES ACROSS THE KEYS. KBYX RADAR HAS REMAINED ACTIVE FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SE GULF WATERS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
FORECAST
THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS CAN BE SUMMED UP WITH THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE KEYS
ALONG WITH BOUTS OF MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OVERALL, EXPECT ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IN ADDITION, EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PEAK IN THE EVENINGS
AND OVERNIGHT AND LULL IN THE AFTERNOONS.
THE INTERESTING TIME FRAME CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE IN
THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE PRESSES THROUGH THE KEYS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW. THEREFORE, LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
THE BIGGER SHOW AS WE WILL HAVE BASICALLY ALL THE INGREDIENTS
LINED UP FOR ROBUST CONVECTION. WE WILL HAVE THE INSTABILITY,
MOISTURE, AND LIFT ALL LINING UP AT THE SAME TIME. MORE SIMPLY
PUT, EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WHICH IS ENTIRELY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. AVERAGE
RAIN CHANCES ALSO PEAK FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER AT 35%, WHICH
IS LESS THAN A WEEK AWAY. IT IS ALSO HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT
TIMING FOR CONVECTION AS BASICALLY JUST EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN ADDITION, EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. OF COURSE, TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S
WHERE ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE OVER.
TROPICS: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) CONTINUES TO MONITOR
2 AREAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS
CURRENTLY POSING A THREAT TO THE KEYS. THE AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS A 70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS
AND A 70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 83 90 83 / 20 40 50 40
MARATHON 90 83 90 83 / 20 40 50 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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