552
FXUS62 KKEY 270238
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1038 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- MAINLY GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE
BREEZES WILL OCCUR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
THE 27/00Z KEY SOUNDING FROM THIS EVENING SHOWS A HIGHLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 5000 J/KG AND
ESSENTIALLY NO INHIBITION. WHILE MOISTURE HAD DECREASED JUST A
TOUCH FROM THE MORNING SOUNDING EARLIER IN THE DAY, THE PWAT VALUE
SAMPLED WAS STILL RIGHT AT THE DAILY MEDIAN OF 1.87 INCHES AND IS
SOMEWHAT EQUALLY DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TO SOME EXTENT
AS LOW AND MID RH VALUES ARE 60% AND 69% RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST THIS
EVENING AS THERE IS A LACK OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
REGION TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS MAY CHANGE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT AS RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CUBAN CONVECTION AT THIS MOMENT AND THERE ARE SOME EARLY
INDICATIONS THAT THIS MAY PRODUCE A NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STRAITS TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH BUT THIS IS A POSSIBILITY IF LOW
LEVEL FLOW CAN VEER ENOUGH AS THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS. WHILE THIS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, HI-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BEST POP CHANCES NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
IN THE GULFSIDE AND BAYSIDE WATER GIVEN THE PERSISTENT EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME. OTHERWISE, EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S AS MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN MISSED
OUT ON ANY RELIEF FROM STORMS UNTIL THIS POINT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF THE KEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PROMOTE
PEAKING AND LULLING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES. BREEZES WILL PEAK
IN THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LULL IN THE
AFTERNOONS. THE STRONGEST SURGE OF BREEZES IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
OVERNIGHT WHERE MOSTLY MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION, THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THOUGH AT LEAST MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR AT
TIMES DUE TO SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE, SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE ESE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS ON THURSDAY.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...RG
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....RG
DATA ACQUISITION.....RG
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