251
FXUS62 KKEY 270836
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
436 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- MAINLY GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE
BREEZES WILL OCCUR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STAGNANT SPLIT RIDGE PATTERN
IN PLACE. ONE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WHILE THE SECOND RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. IN BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES, A
BROAD MEAN LAYER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
KEYS. MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE RECORDING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES BETWEEN NEAR 10 KNOTS AS
A RESULT. GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS
ESTIMATED PWATS OF 1.8 TO 2 INCHES REMAINS ACROSS THE KEYS. KBYX
RADAR HAS REMAINED ACTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT
WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS AND THE
WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY BECAME FEISTY
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SE GULF, INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S.
FORECAST
THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE KEYS
ALONG WITH BOUTS OF MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER INTERESTING ITEM OF
NOTE IS WHEN LOOKING AT THE CIMSS MIMIC TPW PRODUCT, IT SHOWS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF ALL THE WAY SOUTHEAST TO
THE LESSER ANTILLES. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THIS PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR A WHILE AS THE NEAREST DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THEREFORE, EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO WEEK OR
MORE. IN ADDITION, EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINLY PEAK IN THE EVENINGS/OVERNIGHT AND LULL IN THE AFTERNOONS.
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE THE INTERESTING TIME
FRAME. A COUPLE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE KEYS, ESPECIALLY IN THE TIME FRAME
OF FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE, THIS TIME FRAME
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BIGGER SHOW AS WE WILL HAVE BASICALLY
ALL THE INGREDIENTS LINED UP FOR ROBUST CONVECTION. WE WILL HAVE
THE INSTABILITY, MOISTURE, AND LIFT ALL LINING UP AT THE SAME
TIME. ALSO, WE EXPECT CUBA TO FLARE CONVECTION QUITE A BIT AS WELL
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THIS ACTIVITY AS IT PRESSES NORTHWARD. IN
ADDITION, CONVECTION OVER THE MAINLAND MAY ALSO SEND BOUNDARIES
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE KEYS. THEREFORE, ALL THIS TO SAY, EXPECT
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME POTENTIALLY COMING
FROM ALL DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS PLAUSIBLE
ETC. MORE SIMPLY PUT, EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE WHICH IS ENTIRELY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES ALSO PEAK FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER AT
35%, WHICH ONLY A FEW DAYS AWAY. IT REMAINS HARD TO PINPOINT
EXACT TIMING FOR CONVECTION WITH THE CONTINUED MESSAGING BEING TO
JUST EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION, EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. OF COURSE, TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S WHERE ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE OVER.
TROPICS: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) CONTINUES TO MONITOR
ONE AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT
CURRENTLY POSING A THREAT TO THE KEYS. THIS AREA OF INTEREST HAS A
70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AND A 70% CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF THE KEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE PEAKING AND LULLING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES. BREEZES
WILL PEAK IN THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LULL IN
THE AFTERNOONS. IN ADDITION, THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT CONTINUED ROUNDS OF HIT
AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE TIME FOR SHOWER OR STORMS APPEARS TO BE IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. PROB30 HAS BEEN INCLUDED BOTH TAFS
AS A RESULT.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2007, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 86F
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.
OF NOTE
IN 2012, AT JOHN PENNEKAMP STATE PARK, A TOTAL RAINFALL OF 7.00"
WAS RECORDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 83 91 83 / 10 20 40 40
MARATHON 91 83 91 83 / 20 30 40 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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