602
FXUS62 KKEY 271508
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1108 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- MAINLY GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE
BREEZES WILL OCCUR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
FOLLOWING A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS, ACTIVITY HAS ALMOST ENTIRELY
DISSIPATED AS OF THIS WRITING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. LATEST
GOES TPW IMAGERY DOES INDICATE AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS PRESENT OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION, BUT CURRENT MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A LOCALIZED POCKET OF DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. WILL MAINTAIN NEAR-NORMAL POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY INCLUDING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER ISLAND
CHAIN WHILE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN
WATERS, PERHAPS INCLUDING THE LOWER KEYS. GOES-E 500MB VORT
ANALYSIS SHOWS A REGION OF WEAK PVA IN PLACE WEST OF ANDROS
ISLAND, LIKELY REMNANT ENERGY FROM YESTERDAY'S MCV. THIS IS WHERE
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A FESTERING CU FIELD WITH THE
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY IN THIS
REGION, AND FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY, WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY
LIFTING MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER LARGE SCALE
INFLUENCE FROM THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND WILL SETTLE NEAR 90
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNING, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. CURRENT MARINE
OBSERVATIONS ARE RECORDING GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO A MORE EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY HEADING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT LULL.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST HOUR. FROM
SYNOPSIS, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE KEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE PEAKING AND LULLING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZES. BREEZES WILL PEAK IN THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND LULL IN THE AFTERNOONS. IN ADDITION, THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD,
BUT EARLIER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND
THE PROB30 FOR TSRA WAS REMOVED FROM BOTH TAF SITES IN THE 15Z
AMD. AS SUCH, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THIS
TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STAGNANT SPLIT RIDGE PATTERN
IN PLACE. ONE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WHILE THE SECOND RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. IN BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES, A
BROAD MEAN LAYER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
KEYS. MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE RECORDING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES BETWEEN NEAR 10 KNOTS AS
A RESULT. GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS
ESTIMATED PWATS OF 1.8 TO 2 INCHES REMAINS ACROSS THE KEYS. KBYX
RADAR HAS REMAINED ACTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT
WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS AND THE
WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY BECAME FEISTY
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SE GULF, INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S.
FORECAST
THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE KEYS
ALONG WITH BOUTS OF MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER INTERESTING ITEM OF
NOTE IS WHEN LOOKING AT THE CIMSS MIMIC TPW PRODUCT, IT SHOWS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF ALL THE WAY SOUTHEAST TO
THE LESSER ANTILLES. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THIS PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR A WHILE AS THE NEAREST DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THEREFORE, EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO WEEK OR
MORE. IN ADDITION, EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINLY PEAK IN THE EVENINGS/OVERNIGHT AND LULL IN THE AFTERNOONS.
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE THE INTERESTING TIME
FRAME. A COUPLE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE KEYS, ESPECIALLY IN THE TIME FRAME
OF FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE, THIS TIME FRAME
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BIGGER SHOW AS WE WILL HAVE BASICALLY
ALL THE INGREDIENTS LINED UP FOR ROBUST CONVECTION. WE WILL HAVE
THE INSTABILITY, MOISTURE, AND LIFT ALL LINING UP AT THE SAME
TIME. ALSO, WE EXPECT CUBA TO FLARE CONVECTION QUITE A BIT AS WELL
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THIS ACTIVITY AS IT PRESSES NORTHWARD. IN
ADDITION, CONVECTION OVER THE MAINLAND MAY ALSO SEND BOUNDARIES
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE KEYS. THEREFORE, ALL THIS TO SAY, EXPECT
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME POTENTIALLY COMING
FROM ALL DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS PLAUSIBLE
ETC. MORE SIMPLY PUT, EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE WHICH IS ENTIRELY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES ALSO PEAK FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER AT
35%, WHICH ONLY A FEW DAYS AWAY. IT REMAINS HARD TO PINPOINT
EXACT TIMING FOR CONVECTION WITH THE CONTINUED MESSAGING BEING TO
JUST EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION, EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. OF COURSE, TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S WHERE ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE OVER.
TROPICS: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) CONTINUES TO MONITOR
ONE AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT
CURRENTLY POSING A THREAT TO THE KEYS. THIS AREA OF INTEREST HAS A
70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AND A 70% CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 83 91 83 / 10 20 40 40
MARATHON 91 83 91 83 / 20 30 40 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DM/MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....DM
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