893
FXUS62 KKEY 271757
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
157 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- MAINLY GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE
BREEZES WILL OCCUR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNING, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. CURRENT MARINE
OBSERVATIONS ARE RECORDING LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BREEZES. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
BREEZES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
AN ATLANTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE KEYS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE PEAKING AND
LULLING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES. BREEZES WILL PEAK IN THE
EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LULL IN THE AFTERNOONS. IN
ADDITION, THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA, AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
EARLIER CONVECTION EAST OF MTH HAS SINCE DISSIPATED, AND STORMS
ONGOING OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
REMOVED FROM KEYW & KMTH. WITH MINIMAL CU DEVELOPMENT NOTED ON VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY, DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE TAF
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING, SO
A PROB30 FOR TSRA WAS INCLUDED GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT LEVELS OF
MOISTURE. PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 8
TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO BEING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ATLANTIC HIGH.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STAGNANT SPLIT RIDGE PATTERN
IN PLACE. ONE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WHILE THE SECOND RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. IN BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES, A
BROAD MEAN LAYER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
KEYS. MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE RECORDING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES BETWEEN NEAR 10 KNOTS AS
A RESULT. GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS
ESTIMATED PWATS OF 1.8 TO 2 INCHES REMAINS ACROSS THE KEYS. KBYX
RADAR HAS REMAINED ACTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT
WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS AND THE
WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY BECAME FEISTY
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SE GULF, INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S.
FORECAST
THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE KEYS
ALONG WITH BOUTS OF MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER INTERESTING ITEM OF
NOTE IS WHEN LOOKING AT THE CIMSS MIMIC TPW PRODUCT, IT SHOWS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF ALL THE WAY SOUTHEAST TO
THE LESSER ANTILLES. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THIS PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR A WHILE AS THE NEAREST DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THEREFORE, EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO WEEK OR
MORE. IN ADDITION, EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINLY PEAK IN THE EVENINGS/OVERNIGHT AND LULL IN THE AFTERNOONS.
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE THE INTERESTING TIME
FRAME. A COUPLE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE KEYS, ESPECIALLY IN THE TIME FRAME
OF FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE, THIS TIME FRAME
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BIGGER SHOW AS WE WILL HAVE BASICALLY
ALL THE INGREDIENTS LINED UP FOR ROBUST CONVECTION. WE WILL HAVE
THE INSTABILITY, MOISTURE, AND LIFT ALL LINING UP AT THE SAME
TIME. ALSO, WE EXPECT CUBA TO FLARE CONVECTION QUITE A BIT AS WELL
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THIS ACTIVITY AS IT PRESSES NORTHWARD. IN
ADDITION, CONVECTION OVER THE MAINLAND MAY ALSO SEND BOUNDARIES
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE KEYS. THEREFORE, ALL THIS TO SAY, EXPECT
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME POTENTIALLY COMING
FROM ALL DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS PLAUSIBLE
ETC. MORE SIMPLY PUT, EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE WHICH IS ENTIRELY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES ALSO PEAK FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER AT
35%, WHICH ONLY A FEW DAYS AWAY. IT REMAINS HARD TO PINPOINT
EXACT TIMING FOR CONVECTION WITH THE CONTINUED MESSAGING BEING TO
JUST EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION, EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. OF COURSE, TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S WHERE ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE OVER.
TROPICS: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) CONTINUES TO MONITOR
ONE AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT
CURRENTLY POSING A THREAT TO THE KEYS. THIS AREA OF INTEREST HAS A
70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AND A 70% CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 91 83 91 / 20 40 40 30
MARATHON 83 91 83 91 / 30 40 40 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....DM
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