996
FXUS62 KKEY 290830
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
430 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE
BREEZES WILL OCCUR.
- THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY REMAIN EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS
MORNING AND DO NOT CURRENTLY POSE A THREAT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS IS FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW THE PATTERN CHANGING A
BIT ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN JUST SOUTH OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS BEGINNING TO BUILD AND SLIDE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE, THE
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS SLID A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND ALSO FLEXED ITS MUSCLES A LITTLE FURTHER WESTWARD CLOSER TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO, THE MEAN LAYER TROUGH
THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH IT
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE TIME BEING
WITH THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN HUDSON
BAY, CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING. THIS IS
PROMOTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES NEAR 10 KNOTS AS A RESULT.
GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS ESTIMATED
PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE KEYS WITH EVEN DEEPER
MOISTURE SITTING OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN
ACTIVE ALL NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE KEYS.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 80S AND DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S.
FORECAST
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH NO END IN
SIGHT FOR THE RAINIER REGIME. THE MAIN PICTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO THE KEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE
UNDULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS RIDGE WITH THE
NEXT MOISTURE PLUME WAITING IN THE WINGS, CURRENTLY OVER ANDROS
ISLAND. THEREFORE, BASED ON THE INCREASING MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING THIS MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY, POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED BACK TO 50%. THIS ALSO STILL MAY BE TOO LOW
AND MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED LATER THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON WHAT
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY LOOKS LIKE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 50% FOR TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS WELL. THE CAVEAT FOR TONIGHT IS WHILE THERE MIGHT
STILL BE A SHOWER OR STORM, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ON LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT BLEEDING INTO THE MORNING
HOURS SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO THE KEYS TO START
THE WEEK, 40% ADVERTISED FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH,
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER SURGE OF INCREASING
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH THAT SAID, THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK GETS RATHER INTERESTING AND IS WARRANTING A TALKING
POINT HERE NOW. OF COURSE, WE ARE ALL WATCHING WHAT WAS TROPICAL
STORM DOLLY WHICH IS NOW THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY TREKKING WESTWARD.
THIS IS WHERE WE START TO SCRATCH OUR HEADS AND IS MAKING FOR A
PARTICULARLY TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THIS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AND WE ARE GOING TO LEAVE THIS RIGHT
THERE. THE KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR RIGHT NOW ARE TO ANTICIPATE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE EQUALING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND PROVIDE UPDATES
ACCORDINGLY.
THE KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO YIELD TO PEAKING AND LULLING BREEZES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY NORTHEAST TO EAST
BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S, COOLER IN AND NEAR SHOWER AND STORMS. DEW POINTS WILL
REMAIN SOUPY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. GRANTED IT IS GOING TO BE
SEPTEMBER VERY SOON AND FLORIDA WILL VERY MUCH LIVE UP TO ITS NAME
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
TROPICS: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS MONITORING TWO
AREAS FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST IS
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES (REMNANTS OF DOLLY) WHICH HAS A LOW OR
NEAR 0 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN 48 HOURS AND LOW OR 10
PERCENT CHANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ALSO, ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH- CENTRAL GULF OF AMERICA IS ANOTHER AREA
BEING WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS ONE ALSO HAS A LOW
OR NEAR 0 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER 48 HOURS AND LOW OR
10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. BOTH OF THESE
AREAS CURRENTLY POSE NO THREAT TO THE KEYS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF THE KEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE PEAKING AND LULLING BREEZES. THE DIRECTION WILL ALSO
SHIFT OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION, THE OVERALL FLOW WILL KEEP
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND
MTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, WITH THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO, GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
BE ANTICIPATED WITH ANY ACTIVITY. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2014, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 85F
WAS RECORDED IN BOTH KEY WEST AND MARATHON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872 AND MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1951.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 83 90 83 / 50 50 50 40
MARATHON 90 83 90 83 / 50 50 50 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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