544
FXUS62 KKEY 300242
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1042 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BROADLY EASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED.
- THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY REMAIN EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND DO
NOT CURRENTLY POSE A THREAT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS, HOWEVER A
PERIOD OF MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING MID
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE REACHES WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES THIS EVENING AND IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE
BROADLY EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS THIS EVENING. THIS
EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST NORTH OF THE
90TH PERCENTILE AT 2.2 INCHES. IN ADDITION, INHIBITION WAS VERY
WEAK WITH GOOD CAPE. THESE VARIABLES ALONG WITH A LACK OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPED INTO STRONG CELLS. IN RECENT HOURS, ACTIVITY HAS WANED
SUBSTANTIALLY, NOW WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS DOTTING OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER SETUP IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
AN OVERALL WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE
HIGH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE, AMPLE CAPE, MINIMAL INHIBITION, AND
THE USUAL ENHANCED NOCTURNAL CONFLUENCE. EXPECT THE QUIET WEATHER
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCH WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE MOSTLY EASTERLY
BREEZES ACROSS KEYS WATERS THIS EVENING. THESE BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE ENVIRONMENT IS IS QUITE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND AFTER SOME HOURS TO RECHARGE, THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN HIGH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
A WET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE KEYS OVERNIGHT. WEATHER
HAS QUIETED DOWN AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING. HOWEVER, FURTHER ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE EAST.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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