741
FXUS62 KKEY 301621
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1221 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK.
- MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BROADLY EASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED.
- THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY REMAIN EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND MAY
BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN A NW DIRECTION LATE THIS MORNING MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE KEY CWA AS GREATEST COVERAGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS THE WESTERN STRAITS, HAWK CHANNEL AROUND THE LOWER KEYS,
DRY TORTUGAS, AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS. THE 12Z KEY RAOB
SAMPLED A PWAT OF 2.09 INCHES, WHICH LIES FIRMLY BETWEEN THE 75TH
AND 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS PARTICULAR RELEASE, AND SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY MORNING, INHIBITION IS BASICALLY NON-EXISTENT. THUS,
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON, THOUGH MOST CAMS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT, WHICH IS TYPICAL IN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIMES FOR OUR REGION DUE TO THE DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE EFFECTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND CUBA. WHILE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE YET AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THESE DIURNAL
EFFECTS FADE WITH TIME, THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT OVERALL COVERAGE
MAY BE A BIT LESS TONIGHT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS THE
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN MAY START TO BECOME SLIGHTLY
DISRUPTED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY UPSTREAM, WHICH
IS LOCATED NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT THE MOMENT AND WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA BY TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, SOME
DRIER AIR WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, MOSTLY IN THE MID LEVELS, AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC MERGES WITH ANOTHER RIDGE IN THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO MONDAY, FURTHER AIDING IN KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
A TOUCH LOWER OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
AROUND 90 TO THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY WITH THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER AREAS LIKELY TO BE WHERE LESS PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY OCCURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS MEAN LAYER RIDGING VIRTUALLY DOMINATING MUCH
OF THE ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TROUGHING EXISTS ON THE WEST COAST WITH MORE
OF A ZONAL FLOW RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE, THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC MAINTAINS CONTROL ACROSS THE KEYS.
MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
RECORDING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS A RESULT.
GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ESTIMATED PWATS OF 2 TO 2.3 INCHES.
KBYX RADAR WAS MUCH MORE ACTIVE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT WITH JUST A
FEW SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS FORECAST AREA FOR
THE TIME BEING. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT WAS
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND
ACROSS THE SE GULF TO THE EAST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. WE ARE
WATCHING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERCOLATING NEAR THE
CAY SAL BANK WHICH MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S.
FORECAST
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY WITH NO
END IN SIGHT FOR THE RAINIER REGIME. THE MAIN PICTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE KEYS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE KEYS TODAY RESULTING IN 50% POPS. ALSO, ONCE
AGAIN THIS MAY STILL BE TOO LOW FOR TODAY AND MAY VERY END UP
BEING MORE OF A 60% OR EVEN A 70% KIND OF DAY. AN UPDATE WILL BE
ISSUED IF WARRANTED DEPENDING ON WHAT RADAR LOOKS LIKE. GLOBAL AND
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PWAT NORMALIZED ANOMALY SHOWS EVER
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE KEYS TONIGHT CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY RESULTS IN 50% WHEREAS ALL THE OTHER PERIODS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AND TUESDAY NIGHT REMAIN AT 40%.
WITH THAT SAID, THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY OF
THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER INTERESTING. HOWEVER, THERE
SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAN 24
HOURS AGO. OF COURSE, WE ALL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE REMNANTS OF
DOLLY WHICH ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS
MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD PERHAPS EVEN
A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO. THE REMNANTS AND ITS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST
NORTHWEST GLIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF HISPANIOLA AND
EVENTUALLY MOVING ADJACENT THE CUBA COASTLINE. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY REACHES THE KEYS SOMETIME WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREFORE,
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH 60%.
GRANTED THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS BUT THE LATEST
TRENDS SEEM TO BE THAT IT WILL CONTINUE LUMBERING ALONG AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE GULF. THE KEY TAKEAWAYS REMAIN AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE EQUALING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND PROVIDE UPDATES
ACCORDINGLY.
BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY, MOISTURE WILL REMAIN, JUST NOT AS
DEEP AS THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. RAIN CHANCES RETURN BACK TO
CHANCES (50%), THOUGH, STILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AFTER ALL, IT IS SEPTEMBER AT THIS POINT.
THE KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO YIELD TO PEAKING AND LULLING BREEZES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER, THE WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT
WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES DURING THE EARLY MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS FOLLOWED BY NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S, COOLER IN AND NEAR SHOWER AND STORMS. DEW POINTS
WILL REMAIN SOUPY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SEPTEMBER IS KNOCKING
AT THE DOOR AND FLORIDA WILL VERY MUCH LIVE UP TO ITS NAME FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
TROPICS: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) CONTINUES TO MONITOR
TWO AREAS FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST
IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES (REMNANTS OF DOLLY) WHICH HAS A LOW
OR NEAR 0 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN 48 HOURS AND LOW OR 10
PERCENT CHANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ALSO, ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF AMERICA (INVEST 97L) IS ANOTHER AREA BEING WATCHED FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS ONE ALSO HAS A LOW OR 10% PERCENT
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER 48 HOURS AND LOW OR 20% CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. BOTH OF THESE AREAS CURRENTLY
POSE NO THREAT TO THE KEYS AT THIS TIME, THOUGH, DOLLY'S REMNANTS
WILL VERY LIKELY BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
AN ATLANTIC HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE KEYS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE, EXPECT CONTINUED PEAKING AND LULLING
BREEZES. THE DIRECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING WITH
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE OVERALL FLOW WILL KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT OCCASIONAL SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD
IMPACT THE REGION, POSSIBLY YIELDING BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE, SE WINDS WILL
BE NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE
EASTERLY INTO MONDAY.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...RG
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....RG
DATA ACQUISITION.....RG
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