901
FXUS62 KKEY 010229
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1029 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT.
- MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BROADLY EASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
- THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY REMAIN NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
EXPANSIVE DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IS CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION, CHARACTERIZED BY THE MERGING OF A 596DAM
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH THE SEASONABLE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. IN BETWEEN THE TWO HEIGHT CENTERS, HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS PINCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. IN FACT, WE
CONTINUE TO MEASURE PWATS NEAR 2" ON OUR KKEY RAOB THIS EVENING.
DESPITE THE MOISTURE PRESENT ALOFT, THE KBYX RADAR IS DETECTING
MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS, AND NO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS NOT AGGRESSIVE ON ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, BUT WE STILL HAVE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
TRAVERSING THE AREA FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA,
SO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN AND WILL SOON SETTLE NEAR THE LOWER 80S. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PROMOTING EAST TO
NORTHEAST LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS ORIENTATION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST TOMORROW, PERHAPS BECOMING
VARIABLE AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING POTENTIAL CLOUD
LINE DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE FLORIDA MAINLAND
WILL ALSO HAVE ANOTHER ACTIVE SEABREEZE DAY WHICH WILL SURELY SEND
SOME BOUNDARIES OUR WAY, SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA, HIGHEST IN THE NEARSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC IS CURRENTLY PROMOTING
GENERALLY LIGHT, OCCASIONALLY GENTLE, BREEZES FROM THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST. THIS ORIENTATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, EXPECT CONTINUED PEAKING AND LULLING BREEZES.
THE DIRECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING WITH NORTHEAST TO
EAST BREEZES LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION, THE OVERALL
FLOW WILL KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
FROM SYNOPSIS, A SPLIT RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES THROUGH SUNDAY, BECOMING VARIABLE
AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE NORTH ATLANTIC RIDGING
BUILDS WESTWARD, SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BREEZES WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
BECOMING GENTLE AND AT TIMES MODERATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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