042
FXUS62 KKEY 011813
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
213 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT.
- MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BROADLY EASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
- THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. REGIONAL RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS WHERE BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PRESENT AS
NUMEROUS VORTICITY LOBES ALOFT ARE IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. LOCALLY, LATEST KBYX RADAR
IMAGERY IS NOT DETECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED ECHOES
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE LESS FAVORABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE KEY CWA.
HOWEVER, THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS RATHER WEAK AND GENERALLY
ORIENTED IN A LIGHT ENE DIRECTION, WHICH MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF
CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE 12Z
KEY RAOB SHOWS A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST NEAR-SURFACE PROFILE, WITH
LOW RH VALUES OF 85% AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE
SURFACE-900 MB LAYER. THUS, SOME WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL DOES EXIST
TODAY AND IN FACT, ONE WAS ALREADY OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING
OCEANSIDE OF SUGARLOAF KEY SO THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ANY PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CLOUD LINE SHOULD GENERALLY FADE BY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, THOUGH AN ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE SWFL PENINSULA
LATER TODAY WITH A SEA BREEZE COLLISION. AS A RESULT, OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES GENERATED FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
THIS EVENING AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD OCCUR ACROSS OUR
REGION DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTHWARD THIS ULTIMATELY PROPAGATES.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT HAS UNFOLDED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO A
PEACEFUL EARLY MORNING. ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEING
DETECTED IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE ISLAND CHAIN HAS REMAINED
SHOWER FREE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS LAND ARE IN THE MID TO LOWER 80S
AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MAKING FOR A HUMID WARM
MORNING. ALONG THE REEF, LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES HAVE
PERSISTED. AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS, LIGHT AND PRIMARILY EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW PERIODS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN AT NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. MID TO
LATE THIS WEEK, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AS THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AS WHAT'S LEFT OF DOLLY CONTINUES
MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA. STAY TUNED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
AN ATLANTIC HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE KEYS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE, EXPECT CONTINUED PEAKING AND LULLING
BREEZES. THE DIRECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING WITH
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE OVERALL FLOW WILL KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
LIGHT ENE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, BRIEF
PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG A CLOUD
LINE, WHICH COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN POCKETS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT BUT SOME ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LOW SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN
MOST RECENT TAF ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...RG
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....RG
DATA ACQUISITION.....RG
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