764
FXUS62 KKEY 050240
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1040 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOISTURE SURGE WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS. IF
ON A BOAT, STAY LOW, OR GO BELOW.
- HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH THE MID 100S DAILY, WITH LITTLE
RELIEF IN THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. KNOW THE SIGNS OF
HEAT STRESS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, AND STAY HYDRATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE NOT BEEN NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. WE'RE CURRENTLY IN A LULL AS FAR AS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY GOES DESPITE THE HIGH 2.12" PWATS AND LACK OF INHIBITION
THAT WAS MEASURED ON THE 00Z KKEY RAOB THIS EVENING. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW A GROWING CU FIELD NEAR THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
KEYS, SO WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE REDEVELOPMENT HERE SHORTLY. BROAD
RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN, CENTERED OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
IT WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT FOR NOW, CIMSS
STEERING PRODUCTS DEPICT THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS LIKELY SUPPRESSING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD,
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW,
SOMEWHAT LOOSENING THE GRIP OF THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE, AND HI-RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. ITS QUITE
A MUGGY NIGHT OUT THERE WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. HIGHS IN THE 90S ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100-105 DEGREES.
MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED OUT THERE THIS WEEKEND!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. HOWEVER, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCASIONALLY PUSH THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STORM WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES.
FROM SYNOPSIS, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK NORTH ATLANTIC
HIGH WILL REMAIN IN LOOSE CONTROL OF THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIGHT TO GENTLE, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE, EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES OVERNIGHT THROUGH MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. IN ADDITION,
THE OVERALL FLOW WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SEASONALLY NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED THIS EVENING, AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.
INTRODUCED A PROB30 FOR TSRA FROM 12-16Z AT BOTH SITES. TEMPOS MAY
BE INTRODUCED IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
IMPROVES.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW/JY
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