071
FXUS62 KKEY 050852
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
452 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOISTURE SURGE WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS. IF
ON A BOAT, STAY LOW, OR GO BELOW.
- HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH THE MID 100S DAILY, WITH LITTLE
RELIEF IN THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. KNOW THE SIGNS OF
HEAT STRESS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, AND STAY HYDRATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
BUSY NIGHT FOR KBYX RADAR AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS MOVE WESTERLY AND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE EAST. MIMIC PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOWS A MAJORITY OF OUR CWA WITH AROUND 2.3 INCHES OF PWAT AND
IN THE EASTERLY WATERS AREAS OF 2.6 INCHES! TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 80S MAKING FOR LITTLE RELIEF FROM
OUR DAY TIME TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS
THAT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE LOCATIONS, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY. ALONG THE REEF, MARINE LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS. WHILE AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR AREA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN 50% POPS IN THE FORECAST. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 90F WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING THE MID 100S. BREEZES WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY THEREFORE A MID AFTERNOON CLOUD LINE IS
POSSIBLE THAT COULD PRODUCE WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY.
THIS WEEKEND, A LARGE TROUGH ON THE EAST COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA
INCREASING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION, RESULTING
IN MORE SHOWER COVERAGE FOR OUR AREA. ALONG WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE LINGERING, SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MID WEEK, A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
WELCOMING BACK A HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN. THIS ALONG WITH LOWER
MOISTURE CONTENT GIVING US A BREAK FROM ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST BREEZES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK AS WEAK STEERING FLOW PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION, THEREAFTER BREEZES WILL FRESHEN TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WAVES OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE
PUSHING ACROSS THE KEYS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY, POSSIBLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PASS OVER BOTH
TERMINALS RESULTING IN LOWE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. TEMPOS WILL
BE INCLUDED IF DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AND VCSH WILL PREVAIL.
NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND X AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.X.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page