220
FXUS62 KKEY 060318
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1118 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOISTURE SURGE WILL SUPPORT BOUTS OF ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS. IF
ON A BOAT, STAY LOW, OR GO BELOW.
- HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH THE MID 100S DAILY, WITH LITTLE
RELIEF IN THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. KNOW THE SIGNS OF
HEAT STRESS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, AND STAY HYDRATED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1046 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS MOSTLY
DISSIPATED WITH RECENT KBYX IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION LINGERING ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS. GIVEN
THE RATHER PRONOUNCED NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER EVIDENT IN THIS
EVENING'S KEY SOUNDING, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE
LESS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, DESPITE AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2" AREA-WIDE. THAT SAID,
LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND ADDITIONAL
BOUNDARIES FROM LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WILL
STILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS A POSSIBILITY IN ANY LOCATION. MEANWHILE,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OVERNIGHT
WITH A LARGER SURFACE HIGH IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS WESTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF THE KEYS, WHICH WILL SET UP A
LIGHT FLOW COL PATTERN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THUS, A FAVORABLE
PATTERN FOR CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY
WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN,
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN WATERSPOUT FORMATION ON OCCASION, IN
ADDITION TO OTHER HAZARDS SUCH AS GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES. OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 80S
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GIVEN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST
BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK AS WEAK STEERING FLOW
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION, THEREAFTER BREEZES WILL FRESHEN TO
GENTLE TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WAVES OF LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHING ACROSS THE KEYS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY, POSSIBLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO SUNDAY WITH SE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT/VRB TOMORROW.
HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR AT TIMES IN THE VICINITY OF
EITHER OF THE TERMINALS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN, WHICH MAY RESULT
IN BRIEF MVFR/IFR IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION, PARTICULARLY DURING
POCKETS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...RG
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....RG
DATA ACQUISITION.....RG
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