141
FXUS62 KKEY 060853
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
453 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOISTURE SURGE WILL SUPPORT BOUTS OF ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS. IF
ON A BOAT, STAY LOW, OR GO BELOW.
- HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH THE MID 100S DAILY, WITH LITTLE
RELIEF IN THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. KNOW THE SIGNS OF
HEAT STRESS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, AND STAY HYDRATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
KBYX ENJOYED A NICE BREAK WITH A MOSTLY SHOWER FREE RADAR FOR A
FEW HOURS. NOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
STARTED TO POP UP IN THE DISTANT STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN 24
HOURS AGO THANKS TO A LITTLE COOLING RAIN WE GOT YESTERDAY. ALONG
THE REEF, MARINE LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR
5 KNOTS. AS A LARGE TROUGH ON THE EAST COAST DIGS SOUTH, ANOTHER
DAY OF ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES IS FORECAST FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS. AT THE SURFACE WE ARE SITTING BETWEEN TWO HIGH
PRESSURES ONE IN THE GULF AND ONE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC,
THEREFORE, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY AND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STILL BEING SEEN ON
MIMIC WITH VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES IN THE REGION. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING CONVECTION RAMPS UP A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND IS
WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE KEYS, THOUGH POPS WERE HELD AT 50% FOR
THE DAY. WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LIGHT WINDS AN AFTERNOON CLOUD
LINE IS POSSIBLE, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
WATERSPOUTS. LATER THIS EVENING, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST TO DECREASE, THEREFORE, POPS HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO
40% FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD. STARTING MONDAY, CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME AS
RIDGING TAKES BACK OVER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST
BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK, AS WEAK STEERING FLOW
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. THEREAFTER, BREEZES WILL FRESHEN TO
GENTLE TO MODERATE, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WAVES OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHING ACROSS THE KEYS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MID MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP THEREFORE
VCSH IS INCLUDE FOR BOTH TERMINALS AND TEMPOS WILL BE INCLUDED IF
DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHERLY AT NEAR 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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