890
FXUS62 KKEY 062331
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
731 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOISTURE SURGE WILL SUPPORT BOUTS OF ELEVATED RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS. IF
ON A BOAT, STAY LOW, OR GO BELOW.
- HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH THE MID 100S DAILY, WITH LITTLE
RELIEF IN THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. KNOW THE SIGNS OF
HEAT STRESS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, AND STAY HYDRATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A MODESTLY INHIBITED LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, BUT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH A SPLIT RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
SOMETIMES IT IS HUMBLING TO REMEMBER THAT IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE KEYS IN EARLY SEPTEMBER. KBYX
RADAR HAS BEEN ACTIVE ALL MORNING, WITH THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN GULF NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS.
A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY, WITH MESOSCALE PROCESSES
(INCLUDING ISLAND CLOUD LINES AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS) DICTATING
THE SENSIBLE FORECAST. WITH MAINLAND HEATING, WE EXPECT WINDS TO
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING CUMULUS
CONGESTUS TO CONGEAL INTO AN ISLAND CLOUD LINE ACROSS AT LEAST THE
LOWER KEYS. INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING FROM EXISTING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, A SOLID CHANCE LEVEL RAIN AND
THUNDER FORECAST SEEMS PRUDENT. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS LATE
MORNING FORECAST ITERATION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST
BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK, AS WEAK STEERING FLOW
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. THEREAFTER, BREEZES WILL FRESHEN TO
GENTLE TO MODERATE, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WAVES OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHING ACROSS THE KEYS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO BOTH TERMINALS WITH A LULL IN
CONVECTION NEAR THE KEYS THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA, AND THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND
SUNRISE. A PROB30 FOR TSRA WAS INTRODUCED AT BOTH SITES FROM
10-14Z. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATE IN
THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IMPACTS BEYOND 14Z IN THIS ISSUANCE.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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