627
FXUS62 KKEY 070215
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1015 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOISTURE SURGE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FROM LABOR DAY INTO MIDWEEK.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS. IF
ON A BOAT, STAY LOW, OR GO BELOW.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100-105 DEGREES DAILY, WITH
LITTLE RELIEF IN THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. KNOW THE SIGNS
OF HEAT STRESS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, AND STAY HYDRATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAINS ON THE FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING NEARLY EAST
TO WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION. PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS COMBINING
WITH WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE KEYS AND OUR
SURROUNDING WATERS. ALTHOUGH IN A SLIGHT LULL THIS EVENING, WHICH
HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, WE SHOULD SEE A RESURGENCE
IN CONVECTION SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE MAIN THING TO WATCH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG A CUBAN
OUTFLOW WHICH IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON KBYX RADAR MOVING NORTHWARD IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AND AS USUAL, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY INITIATORS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. IN ADDITION, EXPECT LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS BY THE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER BROKEN CLOUD
LINE AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE LOWER KEYS. ALL THIS TO
SAY, NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN PROPOSED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OUTSIDE OF A COOLING SHOWER/STORM, TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S.
FOR THOSE ENJOYING OUTDOOR LABOR DAY FESTIVITIES, AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES, AND
EXTRA HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD FROM CUBA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY CONTINUE TO GENERATE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE KEYS.
MARINERS ENCOUNTERING THIS ACTIVITY MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS.
FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MID WEEK, AS WEAK STEERING FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THEREAFTER, BREEZES WILL FRESHEN TO GENTLE TO MODERATE, AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WAVES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING
ACROSS THE KEYS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
THROUGH TUESDAY, POSSIBLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO BOTH TERMINALS WITH A LULL IN
CONVECTION NEAR THE KEYS THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA, AND THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND
SUNRISE. A PROB30 FOR TSRA WAS INTRODUCED AT BOTH SITES FROM
10-14Z. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATE IN
THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IMPACTS BEYOND 14Z IN THIS ISSUANCE.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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