538
FXUS62 KKEY 071439
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1039 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOISTURE SURGE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO MIDWEEK.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS. IF
ON A BOAT, STAY LOW, OR GO BELOW.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100-105 DEGREES DAILY, WITH
LITTLE RELIEF IN THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. KNOW THE SIGNS
OF HEAT STRESS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, AND STAY HYDRATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. THEY WERE MAINLY CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN BUT RECENTLY A CLUSTER IS FLARING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LOOKING AT THE LOW LEVELS, WE CAN SEE THE
REMNANTS OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
AND FLORIDA KEYS, WHICH HAS LED TO THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE, AN ISOLATED AND RATHER SMALL SHORTWAVE IS
RIPPLING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SHORTWAVE IS GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST
AND HAS ENTERED THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, RIGHT WHERE WE SEE NEW
CONVECTION POPPING UP. THESE LOW LEVEL FEATURES ARE PUTTING THE
KEYS IN A NEBULOUS PRESSURE REGIME, WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL TREK
NORTHEAST AND INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FLAIR UP AT TIMES. IN ADDITION, HI-RES MODELS SHOW A SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WIND DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY WHICH COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A
REVERSE CLOUD LINE TO DEVELOP. THIS HOWEVER, WILL HINGE ON IF WE
CAN BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS,
GIVEN THE OTHER FEATURES PREVIOUS MENTIONED, OPTED TO LEAVE POPS
AT 40 PERCENT FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MARINERS ENCOUNTERING THIS ACTIVITY CAN EXPECT HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, EXPECTING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BREEZES THAT WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO WANT TO BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WEAK PRESSURE
REGIME THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER,
WE CAN EXPECT LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE BREEZES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE EYW TERMINAL. ANY PASSING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR/LIFR
VISIBILITY ALONG WITH GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION, EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WITH A TENDENCY TO BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING FOR KBYX AS ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 80S
MAKING FOR LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE DAY TIME HIGHS OF NEAR 90.
ACCORDING TO NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY.
MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REEF ARE REPORTING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER IN THE REGION.
MIMIC PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SHOWING AROUND 2.2 INCHES SURROUNDING
OUR AREA. MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP IN THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING. A AFTERNOON CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY.
BY MID WEEK, THE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SLIGHT
FRESHENING OF BREEZES WITH MID WEEK WITH PERIODS OF GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AT TIMES FRESH. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STAY
TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 82 / 40 30 40 30
MARATHON 90 83 90 83 / 40 30 40 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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