283
FXUS62 KKEY 072348
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
748 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK,
SUPPORTING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS. IF
ON A BOAT, STAY LOW, OR GO BELOW.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100-105 DEGREES DAILY, WITH
LITTLE RELIEF IN THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. KNOW THE SIGNS
OF HEAT STRESS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, AND STAY HYDRATED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE KEYS REMAIN IN A WEAK AND NEBULOUS FLOW REGIME.
BY WEDNESDAY, EXPECTING THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BEGIN SLIDING
WESTWARD AND LEADING TO FRESHENING EASTERLY BREEZES. THE RIDGE
WILL THEN GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH BREEZES ENTERING MORE OF A DAYTIME LULL WITH
OVERNIGHT PEAKS. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WE EXPECT MOISTURE TO
LINGER ACROSS REGION, SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS CYCLE. VCSH WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE NEAR KEYW OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH WEAK
TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROMOTE RENEWED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. PERSISTENCE HAS SHOWN THAT KEYW
AND AREAS NEAR THE LOWER KEYS HAS EXPERIENCED MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY, SO A PROB30 FOR TSRA WAS INCLUDED FOR 11-15Z.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING FOR KBYX AS ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 80S
MAKING FOR LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE DAY TIME HIGHS OF NEAR 90.
ACCORDING TO NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY.
MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REEF ARE REPORTING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER IN THE REGION.
MIMIC PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SHOWING AROUND 2.2 INCHES SURROUNDING
OUR AREA. MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP IN THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING. A AFTERNOON CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY.
BY MID WEEK, THE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SLIGHT
FRESHENING OF BREEZES WITH MID WEEK WITH PERIODS OF GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AT TIMES FRESH. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STAY
TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 92 82 93 / 30 30 30 30
MARATHON 83 90 83 91 / 30 40 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP/LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND X AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.X.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page