304
FXUS62 KKEY 080143
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
943 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK,
SUPPORTING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS. IF
ON A BOAT, STAY LOW, OR GO BELOW.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100-105 DEGREES DAILY, WITH
LITTLE RELIEF IN THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. KNOW THE SIGNS
OF HEAT STRESS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, AND STAY HYDRATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED SURFACE
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS
SHIFTING EAST FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS. CIMSS MEAN
LAYER WIND PRODUCTS SHOW THE FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH
REMAINS EXTENDED ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF, FLANKED
ON BOTH SIDES BY PERSISTENT DEEP-LAYER RIDGING. GOES-E VORTICITY
PRODUCTS SHOW A COLUMN OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTING SOUTH ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SURROUNDING GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE (2.28" PWATS MEASURED ON
THE 00Z KKEY RAOB) TO SUPPORT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH
WE'RE IN A BIT OF A LULL CURRENTLY, HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES A
RESURGENCE IN ACTIVITY BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE PARENT
TROUGH PULLS FURTHER AWAY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, WEAK HEIGHT
RISES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AS DEEP-LAYER RIDGING BEGINS TO
RECOVER ITS GRASP OVER THE REGION. WE'LL HAVE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, HIGHS NEAR 90S DEGREES, AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 70S ALL CONTRIBUTING TO FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 100-105 DEGREES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN A BROAD NEBULOUS PRESSURE
PATTERN. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE BREEZES
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD IN, ALLOWING BREEZES TO
BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND FRESHEN TO GENTLE TO MODERATE. WAVES OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING ACROSS THE KEYS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY, POSSIBLY RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS CYCLE. VCSH WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE NEAR KEYW OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH WEAK
TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROMOTE RENEWED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. PERSISTENCE HAS SHOWN THAT KEYW
AND AREAS NEAR THE LOWER KEYS HAS EXPERIENCED MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY, SO A PROB30 FOR TSRA WAS INCLUDED FOR 11-15Z.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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