326
FXUS62 KKEY 080816
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
416 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK,
SUPPORTING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS. IF
ON A BOAT, STAY LOW, OR GO BELOW.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100-108 DEGREES DAILY, WITH
LITTLE RELIEF IN THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. KNOW THE SIGNS
OF HEAT STRESS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, AND STAY HYDRATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WEAK LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
VERY MOIST. LAST EVENINGS SOUNDING HAD A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
2.25 INCHES WHICH WAS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE.
THERE WAS A SLIVER OF LOWER LEVEL INHIBITION, BUT CAPE WAS MORE
THAN AMPLE AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS QUITE HIGH. SURFACE WINDS
AND STEERING FLOW REMAIN QUITE WEAK AND OFTEN VARIABLE.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE TROUGHING ACROSS FLORIDA WILL WASH OUT
AS A PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS THIS TAKES PLACE, VARIABLE
SURFACE BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY FIRM UP OUT OF THE EAST. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH, WHILE INHIBITION LIMITED. THIS
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING FLOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THIS EVENING AS IT SHIFTS DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS
WILL TIP BREEZES A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHILST CONTINUING THE
USUAL PEAKS AND LULLS. SOME DRIER AIR MAY ARRIVE FRIDAY, BUT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASED MOISTURE DURING THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
A LOOSE PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS THE AREA IS RESULTING IN LIGHT AND
OFTEN VARIABLE BREEZES ON KEYS WATERS THIS MORNING. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, A HIGH PUSHING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXERT
INCREASED CONTROL OVER OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, BREEZES WILL PICK UP
MODESTLY OUT OF THE EAST. THEREAFTER, RIDGING WILL DOMINATE AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE, PEAKING AT
NIGHT AND LULLING IN THE AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY. HOWEVER, WEAK FLOW AND
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE TERMINALS, PARTICULARLY KEY WEST. THESE EPISODES MAY
RESULT IN BOUTS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 82 92 82 / 30 30 30 30
MARATHON 91 84 91 83 / 40 30 30 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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