529
FXUS62 KKEY 081433
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1033 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK,
SUPPORTING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS. IF
ON A BOAT, STAY LOW, OR GO BELOW.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100-108 DEGREES DAILY, WITH
LITTLE RELIEF IN THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. KNOW THE SIGNS
OF HEAT STRESS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, AND STAY HYDRATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN IN A WEAK NEBULOUS REGIME WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIRLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER, WE'RE LACKING ANY ORGANIZED LIFT.
THIS HAS LED TO PULSE ACTIVITY THAT GO UP NEARLY IN PLACE, LAST
ON THE ORDER OF 30 MINUTES, AND THEN COLLAPSING. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RESIDED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF
AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WATERS. IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO, THERE HAS
BEEN A FLURRY OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS DANCING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN BUT A FEW SELECT ISLAND COMMUNITIES HAVE SEEN A BRIEF
SHOWER PASS THROUGH.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
THIS MORNING. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND WE SHOULD SEE THE COVERAGE FALL OFF BUT NOT ZERO. NO
CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BLINDING DOWNPOURS, AND BOUTS OF LIGHTNING. IN
ADDITION, CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED
WATERSPOUT TO DEVELOP. A WATERSPOUT WILL MOST LIKELY FORM BENEATH
THE DARK, FLAT BASE OF A BUILDING TOWERING CLOUD, JUST AT THE
HINT OF RAIN.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY PESKY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO PASS OVER THE TERMINALS. EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WEAK LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
VERY MOIST. LAST EVENINGS SOUNDING HAD A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
2.25 INCHES WHICH WAS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE.
THERE WAS A SLIVER OF LOWER LEVEL INHIBITION, BUT CAPE WAS MORE
THAN AMPLE AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS QUITE HIGH. SURFACE WINDS
AND STEERING FLOW REMAIN QUITE WEAK AND OFTEN VARIABLE.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE TROUGHING ACROSS FLORIDA WILL WASH OUT
AS A PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS THIS TAKES PLACE, VARIABLE
SURFACE BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY FIRM UP OUT OF THE EAST. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH, WHILE INHIBITION LIMITED. THIS
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING FLOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THIS EVENING AS IT SHIFTS DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS
WILL TIP BREEZES A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHILST CONTINUING THE
USUAL PEAKS AND LULLS. SOME DRIER AIR MAY ARRIVE FRIDAY, BUT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASED MOISTURE DURING THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 82 92 82 / 30 30 30 30
MARATHON 91 84 91 83 / 40 30 30 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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