281
FXUS62 KKEY 090802
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
402 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, SUPPORTING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS. IF
ON A BOAT, STAY LOW, OR GO BELOW.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100-108 DEGREES DAILY WITH
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. KNOW THE
SIGNS OF HEAT STRESS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, AND STAY HYDRATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
AFTER MANY DAYS WITHOUT MUCH OF A PREVAILING WIND, A LIGHT EAST
EASTERLY BREEZE IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
A RESULT OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES,
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE LOCAL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. SURFACE
CONDITIONS ARE SEASONABLE WITH TEMPERATURES BROADLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. EARLIER NEARBY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRECLUDED AN EVENING SOUNDING IN KEY WEST.
HOWEVER, THE SOUNDING OUT OF MIAMI INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
WAS VERY HIGH AT 2.35 INCHES. AMPLE CAPE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL
INHIBITION WAS PRESENT AND NOT FAR OFF THE USUAL. SYNOPTICALLY,
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING IS STACKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES, WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY SPINNING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, BREEZES SHOULD FIRM UP OUT OF THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST, BECOMING GENTLE TONIGHT. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN HIGH, ALONG WITH CAPE REMAINING HIGH WITH
LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. NO TREND IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AND
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
SULTRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH DEW POINTS OFTEN PUSHING WELL
INTO THE UPPER 70S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE AXIS SETTLES SOUTHWARDS INTO FLORIDA.
OVERALL, BREEZES WILL REMAIN GENTLE, WITH PEAKS IN THE EVENING AND
LULLS DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATES AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SWATHES OF ENHANCED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING WESTWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA AND HELP TO NUDGE POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE SPANNING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO WELL EAST
OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT, LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN A BIT TO FURTHER TO
MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH
SETTLES SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL TEND STRONGER IN THE
EVENING AND NIGHT, WHILE LULLING DURING THE DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL, BOUTS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST, PICKING UP TO A LIGHT TO
GENTLE BREEZE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 82 / 50 40 60 30
MARATHON 90 83 90 82 / 40 50 40 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....DM
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